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SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ?
August 10 ​( From Tradingview)
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​​The Situation


​​​Rising Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) is most ​of the time ​​indicative of
​a market trend change or acceleration of previous trend.


​​And falling HVol is usually associated in a bull trend or trendless market as shown ​by the ​chart below...

​​​​And rising HVol is usually associated in a bear trend or trendless market as shown ​by ​the chart below...


​​HVOL did reached on August 7 a low level last seen back ​in mid-April 2015 when ​
​we had a range trade pattern in SRFI. But what is interesting, ​it is that HVol is ​getting lower after a false break out on July 22 with Financials, a very unusual ​trading behavior.
​See 1st chart below - Red Trendlines - Ellipses.
​​SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) Peaked at 344.90 on July 23rd.

​​​​Since July 24 til now, we had a decrease​​ in the Historical ​Volatility ​on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) ​with a  bearish ​trend in Financials since...
Closing price on SRFI on August 7 was at 338.41.

​​Also, take note that we tested the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average​​ - Green Line on the chart below ) on SRFI on July 7,8 and 9 then at 325.38 and rebounded strongly til July 23rd.

T​he last 2 times we did test the 200 DMA ( October 15 2014 and January 30 2105 ), ​Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) reached a level higher than the Panic Mode ( 25 - See Chart Below - Amber Trendline - Bottom Panel ).

But the most interesting technical factor is that the ​Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) is falling as we almost tested on August 7 the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average​​ - Red Line on the chart below ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ); A very unusual behavior if we look back at history
(See Ellipses - Chart Below ).



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SP500 Financials HVol: Unusual Behavior ? $SPY, $XLF #Trading  #volatility #SP500 #xlf

Top Panel : SP500 Financials ( SRFI - Candles )
SRFI 50 DMA ( Red Line )​
SRFI 200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
Bottom Panel : Historical Volatility ( MA10 - Blue Line )​
Financialiceberg.com