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Markets to SP500 Index: Brace for Volatility?
June 20 2016 ​( From TradingView )

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Average of all 5 Volatility Index / 5 ( Candles )
​CBOE Interest Rates Volatility Index
​CBOE China Markets ETF Volatility Index
CBOE EuroCurrency ETF Volatility Index
​CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index
CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index

​SP500 Index Volatility ( VIX - Bar Chart at the Bottom )​​
The Situation

​​On June 13, I wrote an article based entirely on a weekly technical pattern on financial assets;
Financial Markets: Brace for Volatility?

Since then, the breakdown of stocks and Emerging Markets continued and the ​breakout of bonds
​and the VIX also.
​​​
As most of the financial participants are focusing on the Brexit set for June 23rd, a few other
​crucial issues are knocking at our door:

1) ​​German top court to rule on ECBs OMT programme on June 21, so 2 days earlier than the
​Brexit vote.  Read also: 
How Germany Could Upset Europe before UK Referendum
Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)
​​

​​​​​​2) China's yuan back to near 5-year low as Brexit fears start to roil global currency markets. As explained in my previous article (Chinese Yuan: Another Shot Across the Bow on SP500 ?), each time we had a devaluation wave on the Yuan,  it did bring another pressure wave in US stocks.    (See First Chart Below - ​Top Panel - Horizontal Line)


​​So we will see below six different volatility index (from stocks to currencies ​to ​emerging ​markets) ​that will give us a broad view in term of risks on an historical view...

The volatility of the US domestic market was at the low historical band since ​mid-March - ​a sign of complencency. Historical Seasonalities were already in favor of less Volatility back then. ​But the Currency markets and China did bring a turnaround into the Volatility of US Stocks lately...


​Volatility of Different Asset Class

Already 3 Volatility Asset Class were rising fast since June 8 2016: Gold Volatility, Euro Currency Volatility and US Interest Rates Volatility Index. One that did move the least is the SP500 Volatility Index know as the VIX as shown by the second chart below.
​(See Second Chart Below - ​VIX - Thick Red Line - Ellipse)
CBOE Interest Rates Volatility Index ( White / Right scale )​
​CBOE China Markets ETF Volatility Index  ( Pink / Right scale )​
CBOE EuroCurrency ETF Volatility Index   ( Blue / Right scale )​
​CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index  ( Green / Right scale )​
CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index  ( Yellow / Right scale )​ ​
SP500 Volatility Index ( Thick Red / Left scale ) ​
YUAN ( USDCNY - Candles  -  Chart at the Top )
​SP500 Index ( Bar Chart at the Bottom )

Average of all 5 Volatility Index / 5 ( Candles )
​CBOE Interest Rates Volatility Index
​CBOE China Markets ETF Volatility Index
CBOE EuroCurrency ETF Volatility Index
​CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index
CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index

SP500 Index​ ( Bar Chart at the Bottom )​​



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Markets to SP500 Index: Brace for Volatility?  $SPY, $VIX #VIX #SP500 #Trading #investing #gold #euro

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
In fact, to see it more clearly, I did an average of the 5 Volatility Index from different Asset Class ( Candles on the Chart Below ) to compare it to the VIX Index ( Bar Chart at the Bottom of the Chart Below ).
Rising Volatilites usually is bearish on Equities as shown by the Vertical Lines on the Chart Below.
Financialiceberg.Com
Conclusion

May be volatility is giving us a pre-warning on the markets... We can t say that ​Mr Market didn t prevent us from being too complacent...​​​

​​SP 500 Index Volatility is quite low compare to its peers.

​But as history suggest, it start often on Currencies Markets and Gold price shifts and spill over the SP500...