Always consider hidden risks
SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?
​May 11 ( From Tradeview )
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​​​​The Situation

​We have been in one of the most Bullish Stock Market in history ​since 2009.​
​The Mighty SP500 Index from a low in March 2009 of 666.79 to the closing
​on May 8 2015 at 2116.10 rose by a factor ​of 3.17 spurred by low interest
​rates and strong buybacks from ​US corporations.

​​​​But lately, the Mighty SP500 start to be a laggard among their main ​World
​Indices as you may see in the Charts below.

From the Nikkei to the DAX and the Hang Seng Index, even the FTSE 100
​recently, they all made Break Out. ​In fact, the SP500 ​is seriously late
​at this party...

The main reason for that underperformance of the Mighty SP500 ​Index is the strenght of the US Dollar Index which ​broke out, like ​the ​Nikkei in September 2014...​​

Will SP500 Index break or fade ?

​​Well the answer will be: need to first break a tiny daily rising wedge at 2117 before thinking the huge break out​​ at the 2162 level for now​.... Also the Dow Jones Transport is in a seriess of Lower Highs but NOT Lower Lows yet since the peak price reached on November 28 2014. See Last Chart at the bottom...

​​But the most interesting factor is the correlation between the Mighty SP500 Index with the US Dollar Index (DXY)​​. And we are into the zone where we usually at risk to see a short term market downleg as history suggest. ( See last chart below at the bottom - vertical lines )

 Louis Pasteur 
"Chance favors the prepared mind."

SP500 Macro Technicals: Late at the Party: Break Out or Fade ?  $SPY, $SPX, $SP500  #Trading #Investing #SP500 #dxy

Nikkei 225
Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in September 2014

Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in January 2015
Hang Seng
Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in April 2015
Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in April 2015
Monthly Chart
NO Break Out​​ - But Rising Wedge
The Guilty: US Dollar Index
​Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in September 2014
Dailly Chart
NO Break Out​​ - But Rising Wedge

​SP500 Index ( Candles )​​​
Correlation SP500 Index with US Dollar (DXY) ( Line Chart - Bottom Panel )
Dow Jones Transport 
Dailly Chart
NO Break Out​​ - Lower Highs