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SP500 Low Beta ETF SPLV: New High Ever?
June 30 2016 ( From TradeView, CNN Money )

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The Situation

The market participants never gave attention to that divergence that started from April 27 2016
til now between Risk Taking behavior (stronger) and the Mighty SP500 Index that is within
a new rising wedge technical pattern. (See chart below - Bottom Panel - Blue Trendlines).

In fact, the Mighty SP500 Index made a higher high on June 7 compare to the previous one
reached on April 20 2016 but the Risk Taking behavior is lower now than the previous peak.
(See chart below - Top Panel - Ellipses).

The divergence is even more obvious on a weekly chart. As we reach now new highs on the SP500 Index, the Risk behavior pattern (ratio of High Beta Stocks to Low Beta Stocks on the SP500) didn t confirm yet. In fact, the risk taking behavior is at the lowest since mid-March 2016 as SP500 keep flirting near the high. (See second chart below - Top Panel (ratio) and Bottom Panel (SP500)).

Also interesting to note the Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money is coming from Extreme Fear and as of June 29 is now at the Greed Level of 58.

But honestly, a few things puzzle me on that market behavior on the SP500 lately:

1) SPLV ETF (PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio) reached a new high ever as of June 29 2016.
(See third chart below - Uptrend Channel - Ellipse)

2) The percentage of the SP500 Index stocks above the 50 DMA (Day Moving Average) is within a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since mid-March 2016.
(See fourth chart below - Top Panel % of stocks - Bottom Panel SP500 Index).

3) The SP500 Bullish Index is falling since March 30 2016 ( from 79.4% to 50.4% now), lack of confidence.

4) Most of the best performing financial assets since the beginning of the year are usually defensive plays (except energy whici is a special case this year):
bonds, dividend stocks, Utility Sector, Consumer Staples Sector.

That tells me how unconvinced market participants are about the market potential in terms of risk reward.

SP500 Low Beta ETF SPLV: New High Ever? $SPY #Trading #risk #spy #lowbeta

Daily RATIO
High Beta - Low Beta ETFs ( Blue Line - Top Panel )
7 DMA ( Grey Line )
SP500 ( Candles - Bottom Panel )

Financialiceberg.Com

Weekly RATIO
High Beta - Low Beta ETFs ( Bar - Top Panel )
SP500 ( Candles - Bottom Panel )

DEFENSIVE
RISK ON

Daily Chart
SPLV ETF (PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio - Candles)
Volume ( Blue Area)

Financialiceberg.Com

Daily Chart
Percentage of SP500 stocks above the 50 DMA - Day Moving Average ( Blue Line - Top Panel )
SP500 Index ( Bottom Panel )

Financialiceberg.Com