Always consider hidden risks
 SP500 Seasonalities
SP500 Index:  US Dollar Driven ?
​November 9 ( From TradingView )

If you would like to receive our free daily markets updates, please Sign-Up
SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ?    $SPY, $USD,   #Trading #Seasonalities #SP500 #spy #usd

US Dollar Index ( DXY - Top Panel )
Correlation ​DXY/SP500 ( Middle Panel - Blue Area )
SP500 Index ( Bottom Panel )​

The Situation

We have been in one of the most Bullish Stock Market ​in history
​since 2009.​ The Mighty SP500 Index from a ​low in March 2009 ​of
​666.79 to the high ever on May 2015 ​at 2134.71 rose by a ​factor
​​of 3.2 spurred by low interest ​rates and strong buybacks ​from
​US corporations.

In fact, when we broke a Rising Wedge Pattern on ​August 21 2015​, ​​
​game was over on SP500 on a short ​term basis and then ​reached ​then the panic ​selling level ​on August 24 at 1867.01.
​​( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Bottom Grey Trendline )

​​Since then, a huge rally ​​​occured on the Mighty SP500 and reached almost a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on May 20 2105.  ​​( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel -Red Trendline )

US Dollar and SP500 Correlation

Back in April 2015, we started to observe a new behavior as the stock market was getting near its high ever.

​​But​​ the most striking factor is the relationship ( correlation ) between the US Dollar Index ( DXY ) and the Mighty SP500 Index on a Daily basis as shown by the chart below.

So we can observe that​​ when correlation is getting near or over 0.65 and or the US Dollar Index have a short term rally, then most of the time, we started a tiny correction in the SP500 Index as it happened in April, May, August and now.​ ( White Vertical Lines - Chart below )

But the most interesting technical factor is that the US Dollar Index Broke this week a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on March 13 2015.  ​​A game changer for International portfolio managers.
( See Chart Below - Top Panel - Grey Trendline  - Ellipse )