Always consider hidden risks
SPY ETF/Apple Shares:  A Tale of Two Worlds?
​November 16  2016 ( From TradingView )
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Starting November 9, we saw the Trumpification of Financial Markets
​as pro-growth and ​reflation theme within a protectionism bias repriced
​violently all SP500 Index
 ​(SPY ETF) ​and ​Apple Shares​ (AAPL).

​​In the case​ SPY ETF, we tested on October 31 week the Previous
​Weekly Breakout Trendline that started back since May 18 2015 week
​and rebounded sharply after Trump victory (pro-growth theme)
​(See First Chart Below - Top Panel - Thick Red TrendLine)​

Since then, the SPY ETF is making on a weekly basis higher highs and
​higer lows. 
(See First Chart Below)​ The On-Balance Volume ​Technical
​Indicator (
OBV) on SPY ETF is showing some strenght and back above
the breakout line.​  
(See First Chart Below - Bottom Panel)​​

​​In the case of Apple Shares, ​we already broke the Weekly Rising
Channel and tested the Previous Breakout Trendline that​ started back
​since July 20 2015 and so Critical for Bulls.

​​(See Second Chart Below - Top Panel Thick Yellow Trendline - Ellipse)​ 
The On-Balance Volume Technical Indicator (OBV) on Apple Shares
is showing a turnaround since peaking out in October 10 2016 week
​and much weaker​ than the SPY ETF... 
(See​ Second Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Yellow Trendline)

​​​And few of us realize that in fact, Apple Shares started under performing ​the SPY ETF on a relative basis (ratio of AAPL vs ​SPY ETF ​- Weekly Chart) since October 17 2016 week (so way before the US Election) after testing and rejecting the Previous Major Breakdown Trendline (now resistance).
(See Third Chart Below - Ellipse) 

And also ​we can observe that Apple Shares are under performing ​the Technology Sector on a relative basis (ratio of AAPL vs XLK ETF ​- Weekly Chart) since October 17 2016 week and also back into a weekly Megaphone channel that started back since May 9 2016 (false breakout). ​(See Fourth Chart Below - Thin Yellow Lines)
​We broke also the Weekly Uptrend Channel.  (See Fourth Chart Below - Uptrend Channel)

​​In Summary: As the SPY ETF is Bullish Mode since the US Election, Apple Shares were already in a Correction Phase prior to that. Apple Shares are now at a technical crossroads as we are:
1) Still above the 52 Weeks Moving Average in price ​ (See Second Chart Below- Green Line)
2)​ Still above the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average).
3) Still above the ​Major Weekly Support Trendline price wise that started back since July 2015

​(See Second Chart Below - Yellow Trendline - Ellipse)
​4) Seasonals over the past 10 years have been Bullish on Apple Shares from November 16 to peak on December 2 on average. On a relative basis with the SPY ETF, Apple Shares started to outperform on November 16 to peak on average over the past 10 years on November 28.

The Ultimate battle for Bulls is now or never in the case of Apple Share as we are within a Dephasing Technical Pattern (vs SP500 Index) as shown by the OBV Indicator and seasonals.

​​As few of us realize, we are near testing the Monthly Support Trendline from an Uptrend Channel on Apple Shares (See Fifth Chart Below - Green Line - Ellipse) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at $106.68 ish...


"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

#SPY ETF/ #Apple Shares: A Tale of Two Worlds? $SPY, $AAPL  #Trading #investing #aapl #SP500 #stocks
SP500 Index  ​(Top Panel - SPY ETF - Weekly Candles)
OBV ( Bottom Panel - Blue Line)​

Weekly Ratio
Apple Shares ( AAPL )
SP500 Index ( SPY ETF )​​
Apple Shares ​(Top Panel - AAPL - Weekly Candles)
​OBV ( Bottom Panel - Blue Line)​
Weekly Ratio
Apple Shares ( AAPL )
Technology Sector ( XLK ETF )​​
Apple Shares 
​​(AAPL - Monthly Candles)