Always consider hidden risks
SP500 Index (SPY ETF): Melt Up Phase?
 February 16  2017 ​( From TradingView , CNN)
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​​​​In these Greedy times (good to know that​​ the Fear and Greed Index ​from
​CNN Money is coming from the Fear Zone just before the US Election to ​the ​
Extreme ​Greed Level now at 80).
It is interesting to look the ​behavior ​of
​the SP500 Index (SPY ETF), smallcaps and foreign stocks.

​​​Few of us realize that the SP500 index (SPY ETF) started a Bullish Trend
just before the US Election; bottoming out on November 4 2016 ​(close at 208.55) at 198.65 to make a Breakout on November 25 2016 (from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on May 20 2015)​ ​
(See first chart below - Thick Yellow Trendline ) , all that with a lower trading Volume which is quite unusual for a Breakout. (See first chart below - Blue Area)

​​​​After peaking on December 13 2016 with a high ever then at 228.34, SPY ETF started a long Consolidation Phase in a narrow range but with Higher Highs and Higher Lows that did create the Strong Compression Price that we were into; a Daily Rising Wedge. (See First Chart Below - Red Trendlines) It did break out on February 9 2016. Also, it did break out a Major Daily Resistance Trendline on February 14 2016 and started the Euphoria Melt Up Phase, the painful trade at this time for the portfolio managers. (See First Chart Below - Blue Trendline) . Quite interesting to note that we are now over the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back in October 2007 as shown by the second chart below. 

Also, there was already a developing strength among Small Capitalization stocks (TWOK ETF) before the US Election that did accelerate tremendously since; so small stocks outperforming tremendously the SP100 (The Generals) since the US Election. So more stocks is participating to the rally... ​​

But the real interesting part is to acknowledge that the Small Tech Capitalization stocks (SP600 Small Cap Information Technology Index PSCT ETF) is the real out performer compare to the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) on a relative basis (daily ratio of PSCT over SPY ETF as it reached a new high ever this week. (See Third chart below)

Also, we must realize that the Mighty SP 500 Index (SPY ETF) out performed tremendously since the US Election the large and mid capitalization of non US equities ( ACWX-iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF ) on a Relative basis (daily ratio of SPY ETF over ACWX ETF).(See Fourth Chart Below)​

What strikes me the most is that the SP500 Volatility Index (VIX) already tested a Support Trendline and bounced as shown by the fifth chart below. Even more surprising that the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average-yellow line) reached a level last seen on July 3 2014; can we have a more complacent market then that?

As the most hated bull market in history continue its long stretch, it remains a very atypical market as momentum seems more important that value investing. As geo-political risks is on the rise, market behavior is still on the complacency side...​​​​As the retail investor are chasing aggressively that rally into more illiquid technology stocks, the market becomes more vulnerable when/IF we will have a correction.

SP500 Index (SPY ETF): Melt Up Phase? $SPY, $SPX,  USDX #Trading #dxy  #usdollar #SP500 #spy
SP500 Volatility Index (VIX - Daily Candles)
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
​50 DMA ( Red Line )​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Daily Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​50 DMA ( Red Line )​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Monthly Candles )
3 MMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​12 MMA ( Red Line )​
24 MMA ( Green Line )​​
Daily Ratio (Candles)
SP600 Small Cap Index (PSCT ETF)​
​SP500 Index (SPY ETF)
Daily Ratio (Candles)
SP500 Index (SPY ETF)