Always consider hidden risks
COT ( Commitment of Traders )

​​As we can observe on the graph below, Small speculators started adding to their long position of the SP500 since mi-July 
blue line )  and Large Speculators decreasing their short positions ( green line )

​​And as we can see on the graph below, the Seasonals are turning bearish for the SP500 til the third week of May...


​​Not much have changed for me since yesterday. I expect the Bullish
Channel to be broken on the downside in the next few sessions and the
​volatility​ picking up going near Labor Day.​

​We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12
​with ​1998.5 ​as ​support and ​2022 as resistance for today.

That bullish channel is in jeopardy unless we do have a daily close above
​the 1998.50 level today.

Also, to have another bullish impulse, we need to close above the
​resistance trendline that started on July 3 ( see amber line - charts below )
​at 1999​​​ for today.

​​​Market is quite complacent after that major grind we had since August 8.
Technical Indicators are at or near overbought conditions.​
Retail Participants are in Full Speed ​and unaware of the turning point in volatility getting near Labor Day.

We have to take into account that seasonals ​are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend.

Then today I expect a range from 1988 to 2003.

So for that new scenario to continue, we need today that ​we ​​​stay ​above the ​1994.5 support level absolutely. Unless we will resume ​​back ​to ​the bearish phase.​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​My Focus will still be on the Financials and the VIX.

​​​​​​​​Three factors brang my attention:

1) Seasonals: SP500 Seasonality Trend : Grinding Pattern ?
2) Market is Complacent: Ratio SP500 Financials over VIX : Complacent Market ?
3) Market Getting Into Overbought Condition: SP600 : Volume A/D: Near Overbought Zone ?

​​Back to the technical levels now.       

​We are in a bullish mode ( since August 8 ).

​We are still within a steep uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 1998.5 ​as ​support and ​2022 as resistance.​​ Also, we have to take into account resistance trendline that started on July 3 at 1999 ( Amber Line - Charts below ).

​We need to stay above 1998.5 for that scenario to unfold. That 1998.5 level will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking down that level will cancel the bullish mode and will be seen as technical weakness.

​​​​IF 1998.5​ break down on a daily close,​ then a correction begin; then 1981.5 MAX 1876 for now.

​​​​​​IF 1999 break up on a daily close then another bullish impulse; then 2008  MAX 2013.5 as targets.

​​​​​​​​​​Adding the 50 DMA at 1957.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bulls.

Already starting to trade above the 1957.5​ level will mean to me technical strenght and Bears are starting to take control of the market.​​

​​​​​​​​Another Factor to keep in Mind is that seasonals ​are for a grinding pattern til August 29 before resuming downtrend. See 5th chart below.

Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 1862 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a consolidation scenario and open the door to a quick 1744 max 1718...
​​​The market should trade today between ​​1988 and 2003.
​Expect volatility to be average but picking up getting near Labor Day.


And Small Speculators started to add to their long positions last week as shown by the chart below....
​SPY Daily  - Uptrend Channel Still Being Challenged ?   - PREMIUM USERS
​August 27 ( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
SP500 Futures Daily U4 - The May Experiment ?  $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F #Trading #Emini #Futures #ES_F #SP500