FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
DAILY TECHNICALS
SAMPLE FROM AUGUST 31 2015
August 31 -
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Last Friday I wrote:
Yesterday s Bullish Wave was the easiest part of the rebound; dead cat bounce or a more bullish impulse...
We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 197.52 zone. The second gap is a lot higher at the 203.90 zone. ( see 3rd chart - SP500 Index SPX )
We need a daily close above 197.52 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...
Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33.
China still in desperate meassure: China Asks Brokerages to Boost Market and Buy Back Shares
We have still the pressure from Emerging Markets hauting us...
But month end should bring some asset rebalancing at the end of the trading session: buying stocks and selling bonds...
Only a daily close above 194.97 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to 197.86 MAX 198.50. New targets are 200.64 MAX 203.90.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.
Next big support is at 197.86 and next big resistance is at 202.93
Then today I expect a range from 195.20 to 199.00.
Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).
We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
4) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98
Premium Service Member Pages:
3 factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 197.86 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 197.86 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 207.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade below the 197.86 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.
Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2002.93 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 204.12 max 204.61...
The market should trade today between 195.20 and 199.00.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 31 -
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Last Friday I wrote:
Yesterday s Bullish Wave was the easiest part of the rebound; dead cat bounce or a more bullish impulse...
We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 197.52 zone. The second gap is a lot higher at the 203.90 zone. ( see 3rd chart - SP500 Index SPX )
We need a daily close above 197.52 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...
Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33.
China still in desperate meassure: China Asks Brokerages to Boost Market and Buy Back Shares
We have still the pressure from Emerging Markets hauting us...
But month end should bring some asset rebalancing at the end of the trading session: buying stocks and selling bonds...
Only a daily close above 194.97 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to 197.86 MAX 198.50. New targets are 200.64 MAX 203.90.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.
Next big support is at 197.86 and next big resistance is at 202.93
Then today I expect a range from 195.20 to 199.00.
Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).
We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
4) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98
Premium Service Member Pages:
3 factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 197.86 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 197.86 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 207.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade below the 197.86 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.
Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2002.93 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 204.12 max 204.61...
The market should trade today between 195.20 and 199.00.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
SPY ETF Daily - Month End ?
- PREMIUM USERS
( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
( From Barchart, David Stendahl, TradingView )
SPY Daily Comments - Tested the 200 DMA and Failed ? $SPY #Trading #spy #investing #SP500
August 31 Month End
August 31 - Executive Summary
We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to
195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Technical Challenge: Close Above 197.86 and challenge the 2nd gap
zone at 203.90
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at Trading SPY
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Last Friday I wrote:
Yesterday s Bullish Wave was the easiest part of the rebound; dead cat bounce or a more bullish impulse...
We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 197.52 zone. The second gap is a lot higher at the 203.90 zone. ( see 3rd chart - SP500 Index SPX )
We need a daily close above 197.52 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...
Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33.
China still in desperate meassure: China Asks Brokerages to Boost Market and Buy Back Shares
We have still the pressure from Emerging Markets hauting us...
But month end should bring some asset rebalancing at the end of the trading session: buying stocks and selling bonds...
Only a daily close above 194.97 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to 197.86 MAX 198.50. New targets are 200.64 MAX 203.90.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Range Trade Pattern trend til September 5.
Next big support is at 197.86 and next big resistance is at 202.93
Then today I expect a range from 195.20 to 199.00.
Take note that we had a Death Cross on SPY on August 28 ( 50 DMA crossing below the 200 DMA ).
We are starting to see more risk taking into the stock market:
SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 28, we had a Death Cross on SPY
2) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 197.50 zone.
3) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 202.73 that started back on December 16 2014
4) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 207.87
5) On August 20, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 207.98
Premium Service Member Pages:
SPY (SPDR® SP500® ETF) Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
3 factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
Seasonalities 20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Range Trade ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) Risk Taking: SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Bottoming Out ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 197.86 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 197.86 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 207.62 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade below the 197.86 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a RangeTrade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.
Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2002.93 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 204.12 max 204.61...
The market should trade today between 195.20 and 199.00.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 28 Any Follow Through ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
TAKE NOTE that I will be switching to SPY etf instead of the e-mini futures
within the next two weeks for the technicals analysis as it is easier to
follow and trade for most of the clients...
We did close above the 2022.5 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Yesterday I wrote:
China try to stabilize their stock market: China Intervened Today to Shore Up Stocks Ahead of Military Parade
We are within a dead cat bounce til the Daily Gaps in the SP500 Index are tested:
SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
So for SP500 futures means 1965 to MAX 2003...
Yesterday s Bullish Wave was the easiest part of the rebound; dead cat bounce or a more bullish impulse...
We are at crossroads for the SP500 here. We reached and closed on August 27 the first gap at the 1965 zone.
The second gap is a lot higher at the 2025 zone. ( see 3rd chart - SP500 Index SPX )
We need a daily close above 1965 for me to call for a more Bullish Impulse. Failing to do so will tell me that it was only a dead cat bounce...
Also quite interesting to note that the EEM ETF ( iShares Emerging Markets ) is near back testing the Major Rising Wedge Pattern Trendline that started back in May 2009 also corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level at 34.33.
Only a daily close above 1922.5 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to 1951 MAX 1961.5. New targets are 1965 MAX 2003.
Only a daily close below 1951 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1934.5.5 MAX 1922 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.
Next big support is at 1951 and next big resistance is at 2003
Then today I expect a range from 1951 to 2003.
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 27, We reached and closed the first gap at the 1965 zone.
2) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
3) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
4) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
5) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
6) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
7) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
9 factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ?
9) Dow Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
10) Technical Rebound: SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 1951 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1951 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 1951 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1934.5 MAX 1922 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 2062 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade below the 1951 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.
Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2003 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 2029 max 2040...
The market should trade today between 1951 and 2003.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 27 Dead Cat Bounce ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
TAKE NOTE that I will be switching to SPY etf instead of the e-min futures
within the next two weeks for the technicals analysis as it is easier to
follow and trade for most of the clients...
We did close above the 2022.5 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Yesterday I wrote:China Financial Turmoil continue:
China’s Stocks Slump as Rate Cut Fails to Stop $5 Trillion Rout
We had yesterday the expected Dead Cat Bounce and near test the 1951
resistance zone and failed.
WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor
Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil... Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Don t try to pick a bottom in those kind of Markets...
China try to stabilize their stock market: China Intervened Today to Shore Up Stocks Ahead of Military Parade
We are within a dead cat bounce til the Daily Gaps in the SP500 Index are tested:
SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
So for SP500 futures means 1965 to MAX 2003...
Only a daily close above 1922.5 ( it did on August 26 ) will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to 1951 MAX 1961.5. New targets are 1965 MAX 2003.
Only a daily close below 1901 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1883.5 MAX 1871.5 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.
Next big support is at 1951 and next big resistance is at 2003
Then today I expect a range from 1934 to 1973.
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
2) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
4) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
5) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
6) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
9 factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ?
9) Dow Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
10) Technical Rebound: SP500 Index: Dead Cat Bounce or... ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 26 ) as long as we stay above 1901 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 1901 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 1901 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 1883.5 MAX 1871.5 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 2062 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade below the 1901 level will mean to me technical weakness and Bearss are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.
Starting to trade above and/or having a daily close above 2003 will bring us back towards another bull impulse wave and open the door to a quick 2029 max 2040...
The market should trade today between 1934 and 1973.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 26 Volatility Still ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.
Yesterday I wrote: We had the best technical set up; a capitulation wave;
I meant a Liquidity Capitulation Wave...We are in a Dead Cat Bounce
Pattern here. CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect
them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Nothing to add confidence back: China Said to Halt Stock-Market Support Amid Intervention Debate
WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
China Financial Turmoil continue: China’s Stocks Slump as Rate Cut Fails to Stop $5 Trillion Rout
We had yesterday the expected Dead Cat Bounce and near test the 1951 resistance zone and failed.
WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil... Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Don t try to pick a bottom in those kind of Markets...
Dow Therorists noted that we made new lows compare to October 2014:
DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
The Monthly close will be crucial here as we are geeting into Breakdown Territory on most Major World Stock Indices: SP500 Macro Tecnicals: From Break Out to Breakdown ?
Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 1871.5 and 1860.
Only a daily close above 1922.5 will give us another possible Bullish Impulse to 1951 MAX 1961.5.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.
Next big support is at 1871.5 and next big resistance is at 1951
Then today I expect a range from 1850 to 1925.
Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.
Market is now pricing Extreme Fear:
VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ?
The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
2) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
4) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
5) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
6) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
9 factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ?
9) Dow Theory: DJ Transport and Industrials: Another Warning from the Dow Theory ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 1922.5 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1922.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close above 1922.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 1951 MAX 1961.5 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 2063 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade above the 1922.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951... Done
The market should trade today between 1850 and 1925.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 25 Liquidity Capitulation ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.
Yesterday I wrote: By breaking the Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started
back on December 16 2014, that was the coup de Jarnac that the market
needed less here with poor summer liquidity... And gave the Final answer
to the Bulls:Hope is now forbidden...
All eyes are on China even if the Real Turmoil for me are the Emerging Markets: EEM annd CEW ETFs
China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails
Emerging Stocks Markets and Currencies were already in Turmoil and the SP500 Index was in fact in a very complacent mood. The Strong US Dollar is typical of bringing Financial Volatility as previous Major Correction was almost always preceded by a strong US$.
We had the best technical set up; a capitulation wave; I meant a Liquidity Capitulation Wave...
We are in a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern here. CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect
them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
Nothing to add confidence back: China Said to Halt Stock-Market Support Amid Intervention Debate
WE ARE INTO a Financial Storm: Technicals Levels are indicative and poor Summer Liquidity can bring anything in terms of Price action; so be cautious out there...
Not the Price Level will tell me that this financial turmoil is over, Lower Market Volatility will...
Market is now pricing Extreme Fear:
VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ?
The Monthly close will be crucial here as we are geeting into Breakdown Territory on most Major World Stock Indices: SP500 Macro Tecnicals: From Break Out to Breakdown ?
Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 1911 amd 1890.
Only a daily close above 1951 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 1961.5 MAX 1973.5.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 29.
Next big support is at 1871.5 and next big resistance is coming from the 50% Fibonacci extension at 1973.5
Then today I expect a range from 1872 to 1973.
Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.
The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
2) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
4) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
5) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
6) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
8 factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
8) Extreme Fear: VIX and SP500: From a Fearless Market to Pricing Panic ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 1951 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1951 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close above 1951 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 1961.5 MAX 1973.5 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 2063 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade above the 1951 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951... Done
The market should trade today between 1872 and 1973.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 24 The Perfect Storm ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.
Last Friday I wrote: We did broke the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on
August 20 then at 2063.7. Also, we did broke the Last Line of Defense for
Bulls: a Support Trendline then at 2038.
Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect
them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
I will start to focus on a Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014.
IF broken on a Daily basis, expect another nasty bear wave towards 1972 MAX 1951.
By breaking the Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014, that was the coup de Jarnac that the market needed less here with poor summer liquidity... And gave the Final answer to the Bulls:
Hope is now forbidden...
All eyes are on China even if the Real Turmoil for me are the Emerging Markets: EEM annd CEW ETFs
China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2007 as State Intervention Fails
Emerging Stocks Markets and Currencies were already in Turmoil and the SP500 Index was in fact in a very complacent mood. The Strong US Dollar is typical of bringing Financial Volatility as previous Major Correction was almost always preceded by a strong US$.
CEW and EEM ETFs will be my lead price wise into that turmoil...
The Monthly close will be crucial here as we are geeting into Breakdown Territory on most Major World Stock Indices: SP500 Macro Tecnicals: From Break Out to Breakdown ?
Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 1911 amd 1890.
Only a daily close above 1973.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 1985 MAX 2002.5.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24.
Next big support is at 1890 and next big resistance is coming from the 50% Fibonacci extension at 1973.5
Then today I expect a range from 1890 to 1965.
Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.
The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 21, we broke Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014
2) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
3) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
4) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
5) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
6) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
Seven factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 1973.5 on a daily close.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay below 1973.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close above 1973.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 1985 MAX 2002.5 for now...
Adding the 200 DMA at 2064 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears. Done on August 20
Already starting to trade above the 1973.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951... Done
The market should trade today between 1890 and 1965.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 21 200 DMA Broken ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.
Yesterday I wrote: Not Only on August 19 ( with the still Dovish FOMC )
we tested the 20 and 50 DMA and failed to stay over. It was a huge market
rejection.Also on August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the
wedge at then at 2079.5. We are now testing today the 200 DMA zone
at 2063.7.Last Line of Defense for Bulls ( exclding the 200 DMA ) is a
Support Trendline at 2038.
We did broke the 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) on August 20 then at 2063.7. Also, we did broke the Last Line of Defense for Bulls: a Support Trendline then at 2038.
Emerging Markets Turmoil is bringing all that selling pressure.... So I expect them to lead IF we have a rebound or dead cat bounce - a must follow...
I will start to focus on a Support Trendline at 2001.5 that started back on December 16 2014.
IF broken on a Daily basis, expect another nasty bear wave towards 1972 MAX 1951.
Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2046.5 MAX 2038 for now... New Targets of 2001.5 amd 1992.
Only a daily close above 2046.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2056.5 MAX 2064.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24.
Next big support is at 2001.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of the wedge at 2046.5
Then today I expect a range from 2001 to 2038.
Interesting to observe that the top performers ( Like the Heathcare Sector (XLY) and Internet Stocks (FDN ETF) and Biotech Stocks (IBB ETF) have been beaten violently. That tells me liquidation to cover losses on bad stocks positions.
The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today... Plus EEM and CEW ETFs
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 20, we broke the 200 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2063.7
2) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
3) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
4) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
5) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
Seven factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 2046.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay below 2046.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close above 2046.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2081 MAX 2089 for now...
Adding the 2000 DMA at 2064 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 2064 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Grind Trade Pattern trend til August 24. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2001.5 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 1972 max 1951...
The market should trade today between 2001 and 2038.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 20 Broken Wedge ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close below the 2088 level on August 19, triggering the Bear Case.
Yesterday I wrote: By breaking on Augsut 17 the resistance trendline then
at 2095, we should have seen a quick Bullish Impulse yesterday that never
came. Which is giving me another caution signal on the market...
I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2079.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trendline for support and top red trendline as resistance.
Ideally at this point, Bulls protect the 50 DMA at 2088.7 on a Daily Close and break 2106.5 because on August 17, we broke the resistance of the downtrend channel at 2095; but with the China Turmoil, nothing assured here... That is why I am quite cautious...
Not Only on August 19 ( with the still Dovish FOMC ) we tested the 20 and 50 DMA and failed to stay over. It was a huge market rejection.
Alos on August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the wedge at then at 2079.5.
We are now testing today the 200 DMA zone at 2063.7.
Last Line of Defense for Bulls ( exclding the 200 DMA ) is a Support Trendline at 2038.
Only a daily close below 2088 (it did on August 19) will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2046.5 MAX 2038 for now...
Only a daily close above 2070.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2081 MAX 2089.
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.
Next big support is at 2038 and next big resistance is the resistance of the wedge at 2081
Then today I expect a range from 2046 to 2078.
The Retail less participation since August 5 also helped that decline :
ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 19, we broke the Support Trendline from the Wedge then at 2079.5
2) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
3) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
4) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
5) On July 29, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
6) On July 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
7) On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
8) On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
Seven factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
7) ETFs Volume: ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Cratering ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bear Trade mode ( since August 19 ) as long as we stay below 2070.5 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay below 2070.5 for that Bear scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close above 2070.5 will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2081 MAX 2089 for now...
Adding the 50 DMA at 2088.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 2088.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2063 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2038 max 1996...
The market should trade today between 2046 and 2078.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 19 No Momentum ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one... Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...
Yesterday I wrote: China continue to be a concern:
China’s Stocks Sink Most in Three Weeks on State Support Concern
In fact, the real concern to me is that it bring turmoil in Emerging Foreign
Currencies - see CEW ETF as proxy.
By breaking on Augsut 17 the resistance trendline then at 2095, we should have seen a quick Bullish Impulse yesterday that never came. Which is giving me another caution signal on the market...
I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2079.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trendline for support and top red trendline as resistance.
Ideally at this point, Bulls protect the 50 DMA at 2088.7 on a Daily Close and break 2106.5 because on August 17, we broke the resistance of the downtrend channel at 2095; but with the China Turmoil, nothing assured here... That is why I am quite cautious...
Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2097.5 MAX 2099.
Next targets are 2106.5 and 2110.5
Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2079.5 MAX 2072 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.
Next big support is the wedge at 2079.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of thr wedge at 2106.5
Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2098.
Emerging Markets continue its underperformance vs SP500 Index:
Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
2) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
3) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
4) On July 29, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
5) On July 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
6) On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
7) On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
Six factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
6) EM Turmoil: Emerging Markets: 50% Fibonacci at Play ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2088 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 2088 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2079.5 MAX 2072 for now...
Adding the 50 DMA at 2088.5 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 2088.5 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2063 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
The market should trade today between 2080 and 2098.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 18 Above the 50 DMA ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one... Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...
Yesterday I wrote: We are still into that downward channel that started
back on July 29 with 2065 as support and 2095 as resistance ( that was
almost reached in the overnight trading session with 2094.5 ).
China continue to be a concern: China’s Stocks Sink Most in Three Weeks on State Support Concern
In fact, the real concern to me is that it bring turmoil in Emerging Foreign Currencies - see CEW ETF as proxy.
I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2078 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trendline for support and top red trendline as resistance.
Ideally at this point, Bulls protect the 50 DMA at 2088.2 on a Daily Close and break 2106.5 because on August 17, we broke the resistance of the downtrend channel at 2095; but with the China Turmoil, nothing assured here... That is why I am quite cautious...
Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2097.5 MAX 2099.
Next targets are 2106.5 and 2112.5
Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2078 MAX 2067.5 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.
Next big support is the wedge at 2078 and next big resistance is the resistance of thr wedge at 2106.5
Then today I expect a range from 2085 to 2104.
Take note that on a Macro basis, we have Lower Bullish Sentiment overall and that bring tha Trendless Range Trading we have since the past few months: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 17, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2091.5
2) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
3) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
4) On July 29, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
5) On July 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
6) On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
7) On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
NEW Premium Service Member Pages:
E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
E-Mini SP500 Futures Technicals - Daily Trendicator
Five factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
5) Lower Optimism: NASDAQ100 Index Bull% Index: Optimism Falling ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2088 on a daily close.
We are within a new uptrend channel that started on August 12 with 2067.5 as suport and 2106.5 as resistance.
We broke on August 17 a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 2088 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 2088 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2078 MAX 2067.5 for now...
Adding the 50 DMA at 2088 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 2088 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2062 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
The market should trade today between 2085 and 2104.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
August 17 Still into the Channel ?
You can find new research and analysis on SP500 at TRADING E-Mini SP500
Other Premium Service Member Pages on the links below.
NEW PAGES LINKS starting August 18
We did close above the 2083.5 level on August 12, triggering the Bull Case.
Conviction is low on that one... Because almost already reached the 2099
Max target last week...
Last Friday I wrote: We did test the 20 and 50 DMA ( Day Moving Averages )
and both were rejected and we failed to close above the 50 DMA; That tell me that we had what I thought, ONLY a dead cat bounce and we re still within that downtrend channel with 2066.5 support and 2066.5 as resistance..
We are still into that downward channel that started back on July 29 with 2065 as support and 2095 as resistance ( that was almost reached in the overnight trading session with 2094.5 ).
I will focus on a wedge this week that can trigger the next move.: 2076.5 support and 2106.5 as resistance. See 2 nd chart below - bottom blue trenldine for support and top red trendline as resistance.
Only a daily close above 2083.5 (it did on August 12) will give us another Bullish Impulse to 2097.5 MAX 2099.
Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2076.5 MAX 2062 for now...
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20.
Next big support is the wedge at 2076.5 and next big resistance is the resistance of the channel at 2095
Then today I expect a range from 2080 to 2095.
The Market trades like it is pricing no fear as Financials and VIX indicator show:
SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Financials (XLF) and Apple (AAPL) will still be on my watch list today...
But do not be mislead by that market - choppy and risky it is...
Some Technical Comments:
1) On August 14, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2088
2) On August 6, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2090.7
3) On July 29, we broke the 50 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2093
4) On July 29, we broke the 20 DMA on the upside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2084.5
5) On July 25, we broke the 50 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2094.5
6) On July 25, we broke the 20 DMA on the downside ( Day Moving Average ) then at 2085.1
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E-Mini SP500 Futures H5 Technicals - Monthly Weekly Daily Levels
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Four factors bring my attention:
1) Seasonalities: 5 Years : SP500 Index Seasonalities - Monthly Daily Levels
20 Years : SP500 Seasonality Trend : Corrective Market ?
2) A Bleak Outlook: SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
3) August Seasonals: SP500 Index Seasonalities - Cloudy August ?
4) Fearless Market: SP500 Financials and VIX: No Fear into that Market ?
Back to the technical levels now.
Disclaimer
We are in a Bull Trade mode ( since August 12 ) as long as we stay above 2084.5 on a daily close.
We are within a downtrend channel that started on July 29 with 2065 as suport and 2095 as resistance.
We need to stay above 2075 for that Bull scenario to unfold. Those levels will make all the difference IF broken or not. A test and breaking up that level will cancel the Bear mode.
Only a daily close below 2084.5 will give us another Bearish Impulse to 2076.5 MAX 2062 for now...
Adding the 50 DMA at 2088 is clearly indicating the levels not to break for bears.
Already starting to trade above the 2088 level will mean to me technical strenght and Bulls are starting to take control of the market.
Seasonals are turning into a Corrective Trade Pattern trend til August 20. See links above.
Starting to trade below and/or having a daily close below 2062 will bring us back towards another wave in the nasty bear case from a tiny correction scenario and open the door to a quick 2037.5 max 1996...
The market should trade today between 2080 and 2095.
Expect above average volatility in the weeks ahead.
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August 31 - Executive Summary
We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to
195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Technical Challenge:
Close Above 197.86 and challenge the 2nd gap zone at 203.90
August 31 - Executive Summary
We did close above the 194.97 level on August 26, triggering the Bull Case.
Only a daily close below 197.86 will give us another Bearish Impulse to
195.21 MAX 194.97 for now...
Technical Challenge:
Close Above 197.86 and challenge the 2nd gap zone at 203.90