FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
 TECHNICALS
Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri on FE(D - Day)
 September 21 2016 ( From TradingView, CNN Money )
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Another Federal Reserve (FED) Meeting today you probably say.
But for me, that one especially is quite ​crucial as:
1) Most of the Major US Financial Markets are on a Monthly Price
Compression and or at Critical Technical Levels
2) Seasonality in stocks start to be on the negative side​​​ from September 19
to October 13 on average for the past 10 years on the SP500 Index (SPY ETF).​

Not surprising to see with that kind of market behavior with the ​sentiment
​index (​Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money) went from Extreme Greed
​in mid-August to ​the ​Neutral Level - 45 as of September 20.

​Some Monthly Technical Charts and Comments on financial products:

1) SPY ETF is at -0.2% from its peak reached on May 20 2015, not adjusted
with dividend payout.
​(See first chart below)​
-​​ SPY ETF broke in July the Resistance from a Downtrend Channel but most
importantly, broke ​the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back  

​since December 1 2014 week. ​​​
(See first chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)
We are now back below that Trendline; False Monthly Breakout???
​​​- SPY ETF have seen the lowest Monthly Volume since the mega Bull Trend began in 2009; it is puzzling me tremendously as in a real breakout, we should have seen exploding trading volume...​​

2) QQQ ETF (formerly known as "the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock) finally made a Breakout on a Monthly basis from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since March 2000! The Technology Sector finally catching up to the SP500 Index but the Breakout was on a very low trading Volume environment... 
(See second chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)​

​​​​
​​3) XIU ETF (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF) is at -6.8% from its peak reached on April 15 2015.
(See third chart below)
- XIU ETF broke the Monthly Resistance of a previous Major Breakdown Trendline (that started back since March 2009) for the ​SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF) in August. We are back testing that Trendline (now becomes Support). Take note that, as the SPY ETF, we had a Monthly DOJI technical pattern on XIU ETF.
​ 
​​​(See third Chart Below - Thick Red Trendline- Ellipse)​. We broke the Monthly Uptrend Channel...

4) US Dollar Index (DXY) tested in July a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started since December 2015 and failed to break. We are still within that Monthly Falling Wedge. A Weaker US Dollar should be seen as a riskier financial environment for US Financial Assets. (See fourth chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse)

​​​​​​​5) IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) broke in June a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back since July 2012 from a Rising Wedge; we are back testing that Trendline; False Monthly Breakout???   ​​​​(See fifth chart below - Blue Trendline - Ellipse)​

​​​6) IGOV ETF (iShares International Treasury Bond ETF) tested the past two Months the Major Resistance Trendline that started since September 2011 and was never able to break it. Now into a Consolidation Mode.
(See Sixth chart below - Top Blue Trendline)
​​
7) Gold Futures was unable for a second Month in a row to make a Breakout from a Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back ​on September 2011. ​​​​(See seventh chart below - Thick Blue Trendline - Ellipse)​
It was done on a very strong Volume trading environment. (See six chart below - Bottom - Blue Area)

Simply stated, we are again into another wave of yield chasing as investors takes more and more risks (even now including currency risks) to achieve less and less financial return. Central Banks pouring tons of money into the system are bringing a skewed investment risk profile - more risk for less return... We had lately the first major rejection of negatives rates in Japan and Germany...

​​I still think that we must realize that the US Dollar direction will drive markets going forward. That build up of positions from domestic and foreigners into US financials assets is more and more at the mercy of the US Dollar behavior. Starting to see too much weakness in the US Dollar Index is the hidden risk here...
Brace for Volatility as most of the Financial Assets are technically ready to make a big move...​



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"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri on FE(D - Day)  $SPY #sp500 #usdollar #bonds #gold #stocks

Monthly Chart ( Candles )
IEF ETF (​ iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF  )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Monthly Chart
​SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​SPY ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
 ​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​Gold Futures ( GC1 )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​​

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
 ​​Monthly Chart ( Candles )
​US Dollar Index ( DXY )

Monthly Chart
​SPTSX60 Index ( XIU ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​XIU ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
Financialiceberg.Com
Monthly Chart
​NASDAQ 100Index ( QQQ ETF - Top Panel - Candles )
​QQQ ETF Volume ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​
Financialiceberg.Com
Monthly Chart ( Candles )
IGOV ETF (​ iShares International Treasury Bond ETF  )
​Volume ( Bottom Blue Area )​