Always consider hidden risks
SPY ETF Price Volume Trend:  Weaker ?
​September 24 ( From Stockcharts , Columbus Dispatch, Barchart, TradingView  )
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The Situation

We observed that the Price Volume Trend of the SP500  tend to
​turn earlier ​and or confirm the trend of the Mighty SP500 as you
​may see in the chart below...

​​The SP500 made the previous peaks on ​February 25 2015, another
​on May 20 and the last ​one on July 20. And the Strength of the PVT
​was getting weaker already on the SPY ETF.
( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - White Vertical Lines - Red Trendline )

Since we broke the Major Rising Wedge Support Trendline on
​August 20, PVT level cratered but at a lower level that the previous
​severe correction on October 2014.
​( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Ellipses )​

​​From August 24 to August 28, we had a strong technical rebound
followed by a weak dead cat bounce from the PVT ( did not even
​reached October 2014 level ).
​( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Grey Trendline )​

​​​We had a second rebound wave from September 1 to September 8; that second strong rebound phase since the broken wedge for the Mighty ​SPY but  ​the PVT got a lot weaker. The Spike in price on September 17 bring a lower PVT than the previous day; ​​that  move was done ​​without volume indicating ​a ​divergence and ​a fragile uptrend ​as ​shown by ​the chart below...
​​( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Amber Line )​

So the most interesting factor to me is always be cautious when we have Big bounces on declining volume like we had on September 3, 9 and 16 and to a lesser extent on the 23. ​A lower PVT of the past few days is always a warning sign for the market. ( See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Blue Line )​


"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

SPY ETF Price Volume Trend: Weaker ?  $SPY, $SPX   #Trading #Emini #ES_F #SP500
Price Volume Trend - a Definition

​​PVT is a leading indicator for future price movements. Although interpretation of PVT is similar to the OBV and the Accumulation/Distribution indicators, PVT more accurately demonstrates the flow of money. PVT adds only a proportional amount of volume to the indicator, whereas OBV adds the same amount of volume not considering whether the market closes up a fraction of a point or triples in price.

1.Rising PVT means new money, sometimes referred to as "smart money, " is flowing into the marketplace. The result will be that the present trend will continue. Accelerating PVT rise indicates that "the masses" are joining the new price trend.
2.If the PVT then levels off, it is often an early warning that the trend is finishing.
3.Declining PVT indicates that the smart money is liquidating.
4.If the PVT moves sideways or falls while the price is rising, the increase in price is not confirmed and a market top or bottom may be indicated.
SP500 Index ( Top Panel )
​Price Volume Trend ( Bottom Panel - 7 DMA Blue Line )