Always consider hidden risks
SP500 Index (SPY ETF): Price Compression?
 February 08  2017 ​( From TradingView , CNN)
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​​​​In these Greed times (good to know that​​ the Fear and Greed Index ​from
​CNN Money is coming from the Fear Zone just before the US Election to ​the ​
​Greed Level now at 57).
It is interesting to look the ​behavior ​of
​the Volatility and the SP500 Index (SPY ETF).

​​​Few of us realize that the SP500 index (SPY ETF) started a Bullish Trend
just before the US Election; bottoming out on November 4 2016 ​(close at 208.55) at 198.65 to make a Breakout on November 25 2016 (from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on May 20 2015)​ ​
(See first chart below - Thick Yellow Trendline ) , all that with a lower trading Volume which is quite unusual for a Breakout. (See first chart below - Blue Area)

​​​​After peaking on December 13 2016 with a high ever then at 228.34, SPY ETF started a long Consolidation Phase in a narrow range but with Higher Highs and Higher Lows that did create the Strong Compression Price that we are into; a Daily Rising Wedge. (See First Chart Below - Red Trendline) Quite interesting to note that we are near the Major Monthly Resistance Trendline that started back in October 2007 as shown by the second chart below. Expect Volatility to rise when we will break that Rising Wedge (Strong Compression Price Zone).

​​What strikes me the most is that the SP500 Volatility Index (VIX) already reached a Support Trendline that started back since August 3 2015 as shown by the third chart below. Even more surprising that the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average-yellow line) reached a level last seen on July 16 2014; can we have a more complacent market then that?

​​​​The SP500 Index (SPY ETF) is already within a rising Historical Volatility (HVol) pattern since January 19 2017 
(See 4rth chart below - Bottom Panel - Blue lline) as Price Compression Phase is on. (Top Panel Blue Trendlines)

​​​​​​​​But very few of us realize that as the Volatility for the SP500 Index is near historic lows (so for big capitalization US stocks), Volatility for Small US Capitalization stocks (Russell 2000 Volatility Index - RVX) is on the rise tremendously. In fact, it reached yesterday the highest level since mid-July 2014 (Relative Daily Volatility between the Russell 2000 and the SP500 Index). This is my Canary in the Coal Mine. ​​
(See Fifth Chart Below - Top Panel -Blue line - Ellipse)

Even more surprising when we take into account that optimism among US small businesses reached the highest level since the end of 2004 (according to the The National Federation of Independent Business’s index).

​As the most hated bull market in history continue its long stretch, it remains a very atypical market as momentum seems more important that value investing. As geo-political risks is on the rise, market behavior is still on the complacency side...

SP500 Index (SPY ETF): Price Compression ? $SPY, $SPX,  USDX #Trading #dxy  #usdollar #SP500 #spy
Top Panel: Daily Ratio
​​Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX)
​SP500 Volatility Index (VIX) 
​(Blue Line)
​Bottom Panel : SP500 Index (SPY ETF)
SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Daily Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​50 DMA ( Red Line )​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Monthly Candles )
3 MMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​12 MMA ( Red Line )​
24 MMA ( Green Line )​​
SP500 Volatility Index ( VIX - Daily Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​50 DMA ( Red Line )​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
Top Panel : SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Daily Candles )
SP500 Volatility Index ( VIX - Daily Bars )
Bottom Panel : Historical Volatility of SP ETF ( MA10 - Blue Line )​