Always consider hidden risks
SP500 Index (SPY ETF): At Critical Support?
 November 03  2016 ​( From TradingView , CNN)
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​​​​In these Fear times (good to know that​​ the Fear and Greed Index ​from
​CNN Money is coming from the Greed Zone at mid-August to ​the ​
​Extreme Fear Level now at 17).
It is interesting to look the ​behavior ​of
​the US Dollar Index ​​(USD-DXY) ​and the SP500 Index (SPY ETF).

​​​The SP500 index (SPY ETF) started a Bullish Trend from the post-Brexit
​panic low on June 27 2016 at 198.65 to make a Breakout on July 8 2016 (from a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on May 20 2015)​ ​
(See first chart below - Thick Red Trendline - Ellipse) , all that with a lower trading Volume which is quite unusual for a Breakout. (See first chart below - Blue Area - Ellipse)

​​​​After peaking on August 23 2016 with a high ever at 219.60, SPY ETF started a long Consolidation Phase in a narrow range but with Lower Highs and Lower Lows. We are now back testing the previous Daily Breakout Trendline so CRITICAL for Bulls to Hold. (See First Chart Below - Red Trendline - Ellipse) It is even more obvious on a Weekly basis as shown by the second chart below.

​​What strikes me the most is that the Volatility Index (VIX) already broke a Resistance Trendline that started back since June 27 2016 as shown by the third chart below.

​​​​The US Dollar Index (DXY) is already within a rising Historical Volatility (HVol) pattern since October 5 2016 
(See 4rth chart below - Bottom Panel - Red Trendline) after breaking a Major Resistance Trendline. (Top Panel Red Trendline)

​​​​​​​​As shown by the charts below, the rise of the Historical Volatility for the US Dollar Index and the SP500 Index (SPY ETF) tell me that the risks have ​​started ​to be accounted for US election risks but not yet reach peak...

​​​​​​​​​But very few of us realize that for a foreigner looking at the SP500 Index on a Macro Basis (so in US Dollar Index - DXY times the SP500 Index) we did finally reach on October 25 2016 a new high ever (prior highest ever was July 22 2016) and tested the Major resistance trendline that started back in March 2015. As domestic investors had their breakout on July 8 (SP500 Index), foreigners failed making their own standard breakout (SP500 times DXY Index)...   ​(See Fifth Chart Below - Top Panel -Blue Trendline - Ellipse)

And we are already within a lower Historical Volatility for that SP500 Index (viewed from a foreign perspective) vis a vis a domestic investor as the US Dollar compensate some volatility...
(See Fifth Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Blue Line - Ellipse)

​But the most interesting technical observation is that, for foreign investors (so taking the US Dollar DXY times the SP500 Index), we already did break the Major Support Trendline on November 1st.
(See Fitth Chart Below - T​op Panel - Red Trendline).

SP500 Index (SPY ETF): At Critical Support ? $SPY, $SPX,  USDX #Trading #dxy  #usdollar #SP500 #spy
Top Panel: US Dollar Index - DXY 
​​SP500 Index
​(Daily Candles)
​Bottom Panel : Historical Volatility ( MA10 - Blue Line )
SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Daily Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​50 DMA ( Red Line )​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
SP500 Index ( SPY ETF - Weekly Candles )
4 WMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​12 WMA ( Red Line )​
50 WMA ( Green Line )​​
SP500 Volatility Index ( VIX - Daily Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line ) 
​50 DMA ( Red Line )​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
Top Panel : US Dollar Index ( DXY - Daily Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
​50 DMA ( Red Line )​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​​
Bottom Panel : Historical Volatility ( MA10 - Blue Line )​