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Executive Summary

Consistently modest output growth is evident in 2013 thus far, and indicators portend further positive growth, although the government shutdown is expected to hamper what may be another modest half of the year.

​​Labor markets have likewise evinced mostly modest gains along with other encouraging signs of health: Unemployment has fallen, and job openings are robust of late. But these positive aspects are tenuous following a weaker-than-expected September employment report. Moreover, the ongoing employment situation has been made fairly indeterminate due to uncertainty—predicated on the shutdown—in the October and other forthcoming data. It will therefore be closer to year-end before a definite view of current and proceeding labor market conditions can be garnered.

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​​Signs of Steady Output Growth Continue While Labor Markets Disappoint

US Economic Update: Steady Output and Weak Labor Markets
Nov 4     ( From Federal Reserve Dallas )​
Economic indicators released in September and October present a modest outlook for growth for third quarter 2013 and imply likewise for the second half of the year.

​​Output growth for the second quarter remained unchanged in its third estimate. The employment situation also showed some mildly positive signs in September—buoyed by modest job gains and a decrease in unemployment—but disappointed expectations of a stronger jobs path out of the recovery.

​​Inflation measures remain anchored, and gauges of future inflation exhibit stability as well.

US Economic Update: Steady Output and Weak Labor Markets  $MACRO, $STUDY
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.5 percent
annualized in second quarter 2013.

​​This shows acceleration from the previous quarter’s rate
of 1.1 percent and no change from the second estimate
in August.

​​Most components of real GDP showed either an increase or no significant decline in contribution to growth from first quarter 2013, offsetting the two that decreased, namely, real personal consumption and private inventories; and none showed much change in revision.
Auspicious conditions emerged from unemployment data in September.

​​The job openings element of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the Conference Board help wanted online index added to virtually unaltered upward trends
​ in the two indicators since the recovery , hinting at strong potential for expansion to continue.

​​Initial claims for unemployment have also exhibited an encouraging downward movement, recently hitting record recovery- lows.

​​The behavior of these variables helped the unemployment rate inch down to 7.2 percent in September.