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Consistently modest output growth is evident in 2013
thus far, and indicators portend further positive
growth, although the government shutdown is expected
to hamper what may be another modest half of
Labor markets have likewise evinced mostly
modest gains along with other encouraging signs of
health: Unemployment has fallen, and job openings
are robust of late. But these positive aspects are tenuous
following a weaker-than-expected September employment
report. Moreover, the ongoing employment
situation has been made fairly indeterminate due to
uncertainty—predicated on the shutdown—in the October
and other forthcoming data. It will therefore be
closer to year-end before a definite view of current
and proceeding labor market conditions can be garnered.
To read the entire article:
Signs of Steady Output Growth Continue While Labor Markets Disappoint
US Economic Update: Steady Output and Weak Labor Markets
Nov 4 ( From Federal Reserve Dallas )
Economic indicators released in September and October
present a modest outlook for growth for third
quarter 2013 and imply likewise for the second half
of the year.
Output growth for the second quarter
remained unchanged in its third estimate. The employment
situation also showed some mildly positive
signs in September—buoyed by modest job gains and
a decrease in unemployment—but disappointed expectations
of a stronger jobs path out of the recovery.
Inflation measures remain anchored, and gauges
of future inflation exhibit stability as well.
US Economic Update: Steady Output and Weak Labor Markets $MACRO, $STUDY
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.5 percent
annualized in second quarter 2013.
shows acceleration from the previous quarter’s rate
of 1.1 percent and no change from the second estimate
Most components of real GDP
showed either an increase or no significant decline in
contribution to growth from first quarter 2013, offsetting
the two that decreased, namely, real personal
consumption and private inventories; and none
showed much change in revision.
Auspicious conditions emerged from unemployment
data in September.
The job openings element of the
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and
the Conference Board help wanted online index added
to virtually unaltered upward trends
in the two indicators
since the recovery , hinting at strong
potential for expansion to continue.
Initial claims for
unemployment have also exhibited an encouraging
downward movement, recently hitting record recovery-
The behavior of these variables
helped the unemployment rate inch down to 7.2 percent