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Just how bad are the data? Well, keep in mind that the jobs report's margin of error is supposed to be about 90,000.
But these post-crisis seasonal errors have almost doubled it to about 170,000.
That's right: the jobs report's real margin of error has been about as big as the average jobs report itself the past few years.
Now, the one bit of good news here is this effect has already faded away for the most part.
Remember, the BLS only looks back at the past 3 years of data when it comes up with its seasonal adjustments -- so the Lehman panic has fallen out of the sample.
To read the entire article :
How Bad Data Warped Everything We Thought We Knew About the Jobs Recovery
US Non-Farm Seasonals Inaccurate ?
Sep 26 ( From The Atlantic )
That's what I thought to myself when the economists at the Brookings Institution's Panel on Economic Activity said only the "serious" ones would stick around for the last paper on seasonal adjustmentzzzzzzz...
... but a funny thing happened on the way to catching up on sleep. It turns out seasonal adjustments are really interesting! They explain why, ever since Lehmangeddon, the economy has looked like it's speeding up in the winter and slowing down in the summer.
In other words, everything you've read about "Recovery Winter" the past few winters has just been a statistical artifact of naïve seasonal adjustments. Oops.
US Non-Farm Seasonals Inaccurate ? $MACRO, $STUDY