Always consider hidden risks
The VIX/Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead?
 July 19 2016 ​( From TradingView , CNN)
If you would like to receive our free daily markets updates, please Sign-Up

The Situation

​​​In these greedy times (good to know that​​ the Fear and Greed Index
​from CNN Money is coming from  Fear post-Brexit (June 27 2016)
​to the  Extreme Greed Level now at 91 (highest reading this year).
It is interesting to look the behavior ​(correlation) ​of the VIX and the
​Gold in relation ​to the US Dollar ​​(USD-DXY) ​and the Mighty ​SP500 Index.

​​​​As shown by the charts below, this correlation tells that the risks have not started ​to be fully priced into the foreign exchange market yet in terms of volatility: expect more volatility in the US Dollar and SP500 in the next few sessions...​​

​​​​VIX/GOLD correlation getting near the 0.70 zone on July18 ​2016 and VIX ​at 12.44, well below its 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) at 17.47, ​indicating higher volatility ahead as history suggest... 
(See first chart below - Top Panel - Amber Line)

​​​The US Dollar Index is within an Uptrend Channel (See first chart below - Bottom Panel - Uptrend Channel) but most importantly at the resistance zone reached in September 2015. Also quite interesting to observe that we are testing the 50% Fibonacci zone (from low of 92.62 on August 24 2015 and the high at 100.51 reached on December 2 2015). (See first chart below - Bottom Panel - Thick Red Trendline): Breaking those levels will increase tremendously the Volatility of all US Financials Assets. 

​For the SP500 index, it started a Bullish Trend from the post-Brexit panic on June 27 2016 to make a Breakout on July 8 2016 (from a
 Major Resistance Trendline that started back on May 20 2015) (See 2nd chart below - Bottom Panel - Top Red Trendline) to reach new high ever since. (See 2nd chart below -  Bottom Panel - Red Trendline) Seasonality is toward a consolidation mode til the beginning of August.

​​So both the US Dollar Index (DXY) ans the SP500 are within a technical set up that call for a  higher Volatility environment as history suggest according to the VIX/GOLD correlation.

The VIX/Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead? $SPY, $SPX, $VIX, , $GLD,  USDX #Trading #vix  #gold #SP500 #moments

VIX ( Top Panel )​
VIX over Gold Correlation ( Middle Panel )
​​SP500 Index ( Bottom Panel )
VIX ( Top Panel )​
VIX over Gold Correlation ( Middle Panel )
​​US Dollar Index ( DXY - Bottom Panel )