FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks
​
 TECHNICALS
SP Indices Technicals: When Generals get Nervous?
 February 24 2016 ( From TradingView )
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The Situation

We have been in one of the most Bullish Stock Market ​in history 
​since 2009.​ The Mighty SP500 Index from a ​low in March 2009
​of 
​666.79 to the high ever on May 2015 ​at 2134.71 rose by a
​factor 
​​of 3.2 spurred by low interest ​rates and strong buybacks
​from 
​US corporations.


In fact, when we broke a Rising Wedge Pattern on ​August 21 2015​, ​​
​game was over on SP500 on a short ​term basis and then ​reached
​then the panic ​selling level ​on August 24 at 1867.01. ​​
​(See Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Blue Trendline)


Since then, market internals continue to deteriorate...

In fact, the top 100 stocks (The Generals) of the SP Index is under performing the Mighty SP500 Index. Looking at the ratio of the SP100 Index over the SP500 Index: when we have a downtrend in the ratio (like in March and July 2015), then history shows we had usually some consolidation in the Mighty SP500 Index... 
​(See Chart Below - Top Panel - Ellipses)
​​
Not only the Generals have been under performing since February 8 2016, the Volatility of the SP100 Index is rising faster than the Volatility of the Mighty SP500 Index on weekly relative basis since June 2014 as shown by the second chart below. We are in a similar build up like from the mid 2006 to mid 2008 situation.

​​In Summary, we have now Generals on the Front Lines​​ more nervous than the soldiers....
Are they only warning signs of a long consolidation​ or a pullback? Be the judge...
​






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US Stock Indices Technicals: When Generals get Nervous? $SPY #investing #spy #SP500  








Daily RATIO

SP100  Index​

over​

​SP500 Index  ( Top Panel - Candles )

and 
​SP500 Index​ ( Bottom Panel ) 


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Weekly RATIO 
CBOE SP100 Volatility Index​ 
over​ 
CBOE ​SP500 Volatility Index ( Top Panel - Blue Line ) 
and 
​SP500 Index​ ( Bottom Panel )