FINANCIAL ICEBERG
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 TECHNICALS
SP500 Macro Technicals: A New Monthly Trend ?
​October 1 ( From Tradeview )
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​​​​The Situation

​We have been in one of the most Bullish Stock Market in history
​since 2009.​ The Mighty SP500 Index from a low in March 2009
​of 666.79 to the high ever on May 2015 at 2134.71 rose by a
​factor ​of 3.2 spurred by low interest rates and strong buybacks
​from US corporations.

​​​​But at the beginning of 2015, the Mighty SP500 start to be a laggard
​among their ​main ​World Indices as you may see in the Charts below.


From the Nikkei break out in September 2014 to the DAX in January
​2015 and the Hang Seng Index in April 2015, even the ​FTSE 100 in
​May 2015, they all made Break Out. ​In fact, the SP500 was getting
​seriously late at this party...

The main reason for that underperformance of the Mighty SP500
​Indext was the strenght of the US Dollar Index which ​broke out, like ​the ​Nikkei in September 2014...​​

Most World Stock Markets were trading in a Rising Wedge Pattern on a Monthly Basis as shown by the charts below. Only the Nikkei is the survivor on that financial turmoil. Most of the others are already in a Breakdown Technical Pattern because they broke the Monthly Major Support Trendlines of those Rising Wedges. Then, we have the confirmation of a Major Technical Rejection; a previous False Break Out and a Major Turnaround in terms of trend for those Stocks Markets. ( See 5th chart Below - SP500 Daily - Grey Trendline )

​​But the most interesting factor is the correlation between the Mighty SP500 Index with the US Dollar Index (DXY)​​. And we are getting near again already into the zone ( over 0.81 correlation factor ) where we usually at risk to see a short term market downleg as history suggest.
( See last chart below at the bottom - vertical lines )




 Louis Pasteur 
"Chance favors the prepared mind."

SP500 Macro Technicals: A New Monthly Trend ? $SPY, $SPX, $SP500  #Trading #Investing #SP500 #dxy


Nikkei 225
Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in September 2014


​DAX
Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in January 2015
Hang Seng
Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in April 2015
FTSE100
Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in April 2015
SP500
Monthly Chart
​Breakdown of the Rising Wedge
The Guilty: US Dollar Index
​Monthly Chart
Break Out​​ in September 2014 ( Minor Trendline - Red )
​Break Out​​ in November 2014 ( Major Trendline - Blue )
SP500
Dailly Chart
Broken 200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​
Breakdown of a  Daily Rising Wedge Support Trendline ( Red Trendline )

​SP500 Index ( Candles )​​​
Correlation SP500 Index with US Dollar (DXY) ( Line Chart - Bottom Panel )
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