Always consider hidden risks
Oil Price (WTI):  At Technical Crossroads?
March 7 2016 ​( From TradingView,EquityClock, Barchart  )
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​​​​​The Situation

Oil price (taking the WTI 2nd futures contract as a proxy) continue the
​painful grinding phase ​after reaching a bottom on February 11 2016
​then at $28.74. Few of us realize that the last time oil price reached
​that ​level was in November 2003!​​  
(See first chart below)

Oil price is still trading within a ​Falling Wedge Pattern that started
​back since ​March 18 2015​. 
​​(See first chart below - Blue Trendlines)

We are now testing the ​Resistance of that Wedge at $37.88.
​Bulls need to break that Wedge Resistance for a sustained rally.
If so, then we could expect a typical Fibonacci Retracement between
the .382 Fibonacci zone ($42.07 oil price) to a maximum .50 Fibonacci
​level ($46.18 ​oil price​).
 ​​(See first chart below - Left side- Fibonacci levels)
Failing to break that Wedge Resistance will bring back the oil price to first the 50 DMA​ (Day Moving Average) level at $33.91 to a maximum $28.74 (low of February 2016). (See first chart below - 50 DMA Red Line)

Some Technical Observations​​​

1) March is the most bullish month of the year for oil price in terms of seasonality according to EquityClock.
​ (See second chart below - Ellipse)​

​​2) We are near having the 20 DMA (​
​Day Moving Average - Yellow Line) moving above the 50 DMA (Red Line);
last time it hapened was on September 24 2015 and a strong oil price move followed. (See first chart below)​

​3) The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders) update from the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) shows the OIL net long ​position of Large Speculators was 212.5k, the highest since November 16 2015 week.
(See third chart below - Bottom Panel - Green Line - Ellipse)
​​But the most interesting factor is that we have now one of the lowest open interest of the past 5 years for the COT report in crude oil. History suggest most of the time that a rally will occur soon thereafter.
​(See third chart below - Middle Panel - Purple Line - Ellipses)​

​4) We must realize also that there is a negative Macro Correlation between the Oil price and US Dollar Index, as the Oil price is a pure collateral within that world globalization environment and that the market have been trading lately in a binary manner with the oil price... As the US Dollar Index was breaking out in September 2014, Oil price was breaking down. ​​(Fourth Chart below - Yellow Trendlines - Ellipses)

Oil Price (WTI): At Technical Crossroads?  $SPY, $SPX, $XLE #Trading #Investing #xle #SP500
Oil price (WTI futures) Seasonality
Source: EquityClock​
Oil Price - Daily Candles
​(WTI 2nd futures contract)
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
​​50 DMA ( Blue Line )
200 DMA ( Red Line )
US Dollar Index - DXY - Weekly Chart ( Top Panel - Candles )​

​Oil Price - Weekly Chart ( Bottom Panel - Bar )​

Oil price futures (WTI) - Weekly Candles (Top Panel)
Volume and Open Interest ( Middle Panel)​
​COT report (Commitments of Traders)​ Positions (Bottom Panel)