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SP TSX60 Index (XIU ETF): The 200 DMA Experiment?
March 14 2016 ( From TradingView, Stockcharts )
March 14 2016 ( From TradingView, Stockcharts )
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The Situation
The year 2015 was a very tough year for the Canadian Stock Market
as it was in a steady downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows.
(See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel)
2015 was also bad for the Canadian Stock Market because it under
performed tremendously the US Stock Market. In fact, and few of us
realize that this trend started back since May 2009.
(See Second Chart Below)
This bad behavior started to change on January 20 2016 when we had
a capitulation move on the SP TSX60 Composite Index (XIU ETF).
Making a new low at 17.07 on a very strong volume was the sign of
that capitulation phase. (See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel)
Since January 20 2016, a lot of technical factors turned finally on the
positive side for the SP TSX60 Composite Index (XIU ETF):
1) On February 11 2016, we tested a Major Support Trendline from
a Falling Wedge Pattern that started back since October 16 2014
and rebounded strongly. (See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel - Grey Trendline)
2) On February 18 2016, the Price Volume Trend (PVT) indicator broke a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 29 2015. (See 1rst Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Thick Amber Trendline)
3) On February 25 2016, we had the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average - Yellow line - 1rst chart below) crossed above the 50 DMA (Red Line - 1rst chart below): a good technical sign for the XIU ETF.
4) On March 3 2016, the XIU ETF turned in a break out mode as it get over a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since April 27 2015. (See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel - Thick Red Trendline)
5) On March 11 2016, PVT is finally back above the level of the August 24 2015 level but also at the mid 2014 zone and showing tremendous momentum. (See 1rst Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Thick Red Trendline - Ellipse)
6) The XIU ETF is now testing the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average); last time it did test it was August 5 2015.
(See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel - Green line - Ellipse)
The Canadian Stock Market is at a Major Technical Crossroads as few of us realize that at a time we are testing the 200 DMA on the XIU ETF, those others technical levels are being challenge:
A) On a Relative Basis (XIU ETF over SPY ETF), we are near breaking the resistance trendline from a Major Falling Wedge that started since May 2009. Breaking that resistance will bring a strong outperformance of the Canadian Stock Market over the Americain one... (See Second Chart Below - Red Trendlines -Ellipse).
B) Testing the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on a relative basis. (See Second Chart Below - Green line -Ellipse).
C) The Canadian Dollar (USDCAD Exchange Rate) is testing the Major Trendline that started back since September 2014 and the 200 DMA. (See Third Chart Below - Red Trendline - Green Line (200 DMA) -Ellipse).
The year 2015 was a very tough year for the Canadian Stock Market
as it was in a steady downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows.
(See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel)
2015 was also bad for the Canadian Stock Market because it under
performed tremendously the US Stock Market. In fact, and few of us
realize that this trend started back since May 2009.
(See Second Chart Below)
This bad behavior started to change on January 20 2016 when we had
a capitulation move on the SP TSX60 Composite Index (XIU ETF).
Making a new low at 17.07 on a very strong volume was the sign of
that capitulation phase. (See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel)
Since January 20 2016, a lot of technical factors turned finally on the
positive side for the SP TSX60 Composite Index (XIU ETF):
1) On February 11 2016, we tested a Major Support Trendline from
a Falling Wedge Pattern that started back since October 16 2014
and rebounded strongly. (See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel - Grey Trendline)
2) On February 18 2016, the Price Volume Trend (PVT) indicator broke a Major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 29 2015. (See 1rst Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Thick Amber Trendline)
3) On February 25 2016, we had the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average - Yellow line - 1rst chart below) crossed above the 50 DMA (Red Line - 1rst chart below): a good technical sign for the XIU ETF.
4) On March 3 2016, the XIU ETF turned in a break out mode as it get over a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since April 27 2015. (See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel - Thick Red Trendline)
5) On March 11 2016, PVT is finally back above the level of the August 24 2015 level but also at the mid 2014 zone and showing tremendous momentum. (See 1rst Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Thick Red Trendline - Ellipse)
6) The XIU ETF is now testing the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average); last time it did test it was August 5 2015.
(See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel - Green line - Ellipse)
The Canadian Stock Market is at a Major Technical Crossroads as few of us realize that at a time we are testing the 200 DMA on the XIU ETF, those others technical levels are being challenge:
A) On a Relative Basis (XIU ETF over SPY ETF), we are near breaking the resistance trendline from a Major Falling Wedge that started since May 2009. Breaking that resistance will bring a strong outperformance of the Canadian Stock Market over the Americain one... (See Second Chart Below - Red Trendlines -Ellipse).
B) Testing the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on a relative basis. (See Second Chart Below - Green line -Ellipse).
C) The Canadian Dollar (USDCAD Exchange Rate) is testing the Major Trendline that started back since September 2014 and the 200 DMA. (See Third Chart Below - Red Trendline - Green Line (200 DMA) -Ellipse).
"To fight and conquer in all your battles is
not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's
resistance without fighting."
-Sun Tzu, the Art of War
-Sun Tzu, the Art of War
SP TSX60 Index (XIU ETF): The 200 DMA Experiment? $SPY, $XIU #Trading #investing #xiu #spy #SP500
Price Volume Trend - a Definition
(from Stockcharts.com)
PVT is a leading indicator for future price movements. Although interpretation of PVT is similar to the OBV and the Accumulation/Distribution indicators, PVT more accurately demonstrates the flow of money. PVT adds only a proportional amount of volume to the indicator, whereas OBV adds the same amount of volume not considering whether the market closes up a fraction of a point or triples in price.
1.Rising PVT means new money, sometimes referred to as "smart money, " is flowing into the marketplace. The result will be that the present trend will continue. Accelerating PVT rise indicates that "the masses" are joining the new price trend.
2.If the PVT then levels off, it is often an early warning that the trend is finishing.
3.Declining PVT indicates that the smart money is liquidating.
4.If the PVT moves sideways or falls while the price is rising, the increase in price is not confirmed and a market top or bottom may be indicated.
(from Stockcharts.com)
PVT is a leading indicator for future price movements. Although interpretation of PVT is similar to the OBV and the Accumulation/Distribution indicators, PVT more accurately demonstrates the flow of money. PVT adds only a proportional amount of volume to the indicator, whereas OBV adds the same amount of volume not considering whether the market closes up a fraction of a point or triples in price.
1.Rising PVT means new money, sometimes referred to as "smart money, " is flowing into the marketplace. The result will be that the present trend will continue. Accelerating PVT rise indicates that "the masses" are joining the new price trend.
2.If the PVT then levels off, it is often an early warning that the trend is finishing.
3.Declining PVT indicates that the smart money is liquidating.
4.If the PVT moves sideways or falls while the price is rising, the increase in price is not confirmed and a market top or bottom may be indicated.
Financialiceberg.Com
TSX60 Index ( XIU TEF - Top Panel )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )
200 DMA ( Green Line )
Price Volume Trend ( Bottom Panel - Blue Line )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )
200 DMA ( Green Line )
Price Volume Trend ( Bottom Panel - Blue Line )
Financialiceberg.com
RATIO
TSX60 Index (XIU ETF)
over
SP500 Index (SPY ETF)
Daily Candles
TSX60 Index (XIU ETF)
over
SP500 Index (SPY ETF)
Daily Candles
Financialiceberg.com
Canadian Dollar ( USDCAD Exchange Rate )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )
200 DMA ( Green Line )
Volume ( Bottom - Grey Area )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )
200 DMA ( Green Line )
Volume ( Bottom - Grey Area )
