Always consider hidden risks
SP TSX60 Index (XIU ETF): From Tailwind to Headwind?
​March 21 2016 ( From TradingView, Stockcharts  )
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The Situation

The year 2015 was a very tough year for the Canadian Stock Market
as it was in a steady downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows.​​​ ​​
(See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel)

This bad behavior started to change on January 20 2016 when we had
a capitulation move on the ​​SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF).
Making a new low at 17.07 on a very strong volume was the sign of
that capitulation phase.​​ (See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel)

Since January 20 2016, a lot of technical​​ factors turned finally on the
​positive side for the SP TSX60 Composite ​Index (XIU ETF) but now near
a resistance zone; ​here is some Technical Observations:​​​

​1) XIU is at 16.2% from its bottom reached on January 20 2016 and
SP500 is at only 13.1%​​​​ and in a steep uptrend channel.
(See first chart below)​

​2) The XIU ETF is now testing the 200 DMA (Day Moving ​Average);
and still unable to close above.
​(See 1rst Chart Below - Top Panel - Green line - Ellipse)

​​3) Since March 11 2016, PVT (Price Volume Trend) reached the Resistance Zone of the August 24 2015 level and showing some weakness. (See 1rst Chart Below - Bottom Panel - Thick Blue Trendline - Ellipse) ​

4) XIU behavior here is coming from the Financial Sector (iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financials ETF) which makes 38.9% of the portfolio and at a Major Resistance Trendline that started back since November 28 2014.
(See Second Chart Below - Red Trendline -Ellipse)​.

​​​​The Canadian Stock Market is at a Major Technical Crossroads as few of us realize that at a time we are testing the 200 DMA on the XIU ETF, those others technical levels are being challenge:
A) ​O
n a Relative Basis ​(XIU ETF over SPY ETF), we are near breaking the resistance trendline from a Major Falling Wedge that started since May 2009. Breaking that resistance will bring a strong outperformance of the Canadian Stock Market over the American one...​​ 
B) Testing the 200 DMA (Day Moving ​Average) on a relative basis. 

Til all those resistances are not broken, the Canadian Stock Market went from January 20 2016 bottom from a Tailwind to Headwind kind of behavior on a short term basis.


"To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."

-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

SP TSX60 Index (XIU ETF): From Tailwind to Headwind? $SPY, $XIU  #Trading #investing #xiu #spy #SP500
Price Volume Trend - a Definition

​​PVT is a leading indicator for future price movements. Although interpretation of PVT is similar to the OBV and the Accumulation/Distribution indicators, PVT more accurately demonstrates the flow of money. PVT adds only a proportional amount of volume to the indicator, whereas OBV adds the same amount of volume not considering whether the market closes up a fraction of a point or triples in price.

1.Rising PVT means new money, sometimes referred to as "smart money, " is flowing into the marketplace. The result will be that the present trend will continue. Accelerating PVT rise indicates that "the masses" are joining the new price trend.
2.If the PVT then levels off, it is often an early warning that the trend is finishing.
3.Declining PVT indicates that the smart money is liquidating.
4.If the PVT moves sideways or falls while the price is rising, the increase in price is not confirmed and a market top or bottom may be indicated.

TSX60 Index ( XIU TEF - Top Panel )
​​20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​
​Price Volume Trend ( Bottom Panel - Blue Line )
XFN ETF ( iSharesS&P/TSX Capped Financials Index ETF ) ​
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )
50 DMA ( Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Green Line )​