Always consider hidden risks
Financial Sector ETF (XLF) : Market Faith in Anxious Times? 
 February 06 2017 ( From Tradingview  )
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​​​​​​​​​​SP500 ​Financials (XLF ETF)​ previous peak was made on December 15
​2016 then ​at 23.87, level last seen back in February 2008.
November 8 2016 was the Trumpification of Financial Markets as
​pro-growth ​and reflation protectionism bias repriced violently all
​SP500​ Major Market Sectors. Sectors winners: Financial and Industrial,
​Sectors losers: ​Interest rates sensitive: Utilities and Consumer Staples.

​​​Since the November 8 election date, XLF ETF (unadjusted for dividends)
is up +18.6% (as of closing of February 3 2017. But very few of us realize
​that we never got back above the Weekly Major Resistance Trendline
​that started back since October 2011!​ ​​
(See first chart below - Yellow Trendline)

Since December 15, the XLF ETF traded in a Narrower Trading Range to create a tiny Daily Descending Broadening Wedge Technical Pattern​.​ ​(See second chart below - Top Panel - Red Trendlines) Those almost same Highs and Lower Lows with sub volume finally is back near the Resistance of that Wedge.  What very few of us realize is that the XLF ETF behavior especially since the election is the main leader of the stock market.
(See second chart below - Top Panel - XLF ETF candles - SPY ETF blue line). 

T​​he correlation between those two financial asset (XLF ETF and SPY ETF) is sharply on the rise since January 24 2017, the same as the beginning of November 2016. (See second chart below - Bottom Panel of the Chart - Blue Area)​

​​In fact, the Financial Sector out performance with the Mighty SP500 Index ​(Ratio of XLF ETF over SPY ETF) started before the US Election when It did break finally on October 25 2016, the Resistance Trendline that started back since October 13 2015. (See third chart below - Amber Trendline) And XLF ETF out performance did accelerate tremendously after the US Election and now into a strong Relative Price Compression Technical Phase. (See third chart below - Blue Trendlines)

​​A good performance from XLF ETF is quite needed for Bulls as it represent 14.5% of the SPY ETF total allocation and is the second heaviest sector (first sector is Technology at 21.4%). So without it, it will be quite difficult for Bulls to achieve new highs to the SPY ETF.

​​​​​I think the broad market (SPY ETF) need the Financials to continue to perform well; as we are still in Strong Price Compression on XLF ETF, it is becoming almost mission impossible to reach a new high in the SP500 Index without their participation. 

As the Trump administration is looking at deregulation, the Financial Sector could be back as the lead in the broad stock market potential new highs. XLF ETF behavior on a short term basis will be upon on which side we break the Daily Descending Broadening Wedge Technical Pattern. I think that when it will occur, it will bring more Volatility in the market especially with a weaker US Dollar lately...​


Financial Sector ETF (XLF) : Market Faith in Anxious Times?   $SPY, $XLF #Trading #Investing #xlf #SP500 #stocks #financials #risk

SP500 Financial Sector (XLF ETF)
over SP500 Index (SPY ETF) 
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​

SP500 Financial Sector (XLF ETF) - Weekly Candles
​4 WMA ( Week Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
12 WMA ( Week Moving Average - Red Line )​​
52 WMA ( Week Moving Average - Green Line )​
SP500 Financial Sector (XLF) - Daily Candles ( Top Panel )
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​
SP500 Index - SPY ETF ( Top Panel - Blue Line )
Correlation between XLF ETF and SPY ETF ( Bottom Panel - Blue Area )​​