FINANCIAL ICEBERG
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 TECHNICALS
Financial Sector (XLF) : Deutsche Bank Contagion? 
 September 27 2016 ( From Tradingview  )
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​​The Situation

​​​​​​​​SP500 ​Financials (XLF ETF)​ previous yearly peak was made on
​September 1 2016 then ​at 20.00, level last seen in the mini rally of 
​December 2015.​ 
​​(See first chart below)​  It did reach a second time on  
​September 2 the 20.00 level creating then a new Resistance Trendline
technical pattern. (See first chart below - Top Grey Trendline)

Since then, the XLF ETF traded in a Downtrend Channel. It did break
on September 26 a Support Trendline.​ 
​(See first chart below - Blue Trendline)

​​​Not surprising at all to have the Historical Volatility (10days) grinding
upward ​as a lot of uncertainties on Financials coming from Deutsche Bank.
(See First Chart Below - Bottom Panel of the Chart - Blue Line - Yellow Trendline - Ellipse)​

​​In fact, the Financial Sector are under performing the Mighty SP500 Index ​(Ratio of XLF ETF over SPY ETF) only since September 1 2016 after creating the Resistance Trendline on a Relative Basis.​ It did break on September 22 2016, the Support Trendline that started back since July 7 2016 and was so critical for Bulls to hold at all costs. (See Second Chart Below - Bottom Grey Trendline)
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​With the last down move since September 1, we are now on a relative basis below the 20 DMA ​(Day Moving ​Average), the 50 DMA and most importantly the 200 DMA on a relative basis (See second chart below - Green Line)​ . That shows how weak the sector is compare to the broad market (SP500).

But what is interesting indeed is that the Financial Sector is weakening lately to the Mighty SP500 Index, as the economic surprise index is on the fall and also that the FED was on the dovish side last week, fading some hope for banks on fatter forward net interest margin.

A good performance from XLF ETF is quite needed for Bulls as it represent 13.2% of the SPY ETF total allocation and is the second heaviest sector (first sector is Technology at 20.8%). So without it, it will be quite difficult for Bulls to achieve new highs to the SPY ETF.

We must take note that the XLF ETF (US Financials) is almost at the highest valuation on a relative basis compare to its International peers taking the IPF ETF as a proxy (SPDR SP International Financial Sector ETF)
which is based on the S&P Developed Ex-U.S. BMI Financials Sector Index. 

​​​​I think the broad market (SPY ETF) need the Financials to continue to perform well; as we broke the Supports on XLF ETF (thanks to the FED and Deutsche Bank), it is becoming almost mission impossible to reach a new high in the SP500 Index without their participation... 

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Financial Sector (XLF) : Deutsche Bank Contagion?    $SPY, $XLF #Trading #Investing  #xlf #SP500 #stocks #financials

Daily RATIO
SP500 Financial Sector (XLF)
over SP500 Index (SPY ETF) 
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​

SP500 Financial Sector (XLF) - Daily Candles
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​
Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
Daily RATIO
SP500 Financial Sector (XLF)
over S&P Developed Ex-U.S. BMI Financials Sector Index (IPF ETF) 
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​
Deutsche Bank AG (US$ - Amber Line )​
Financialiceberg.Com