Always consider hidden risks
The Consumer Staples Sector - XLP: Canary in the coal mine?
March 14 2016 ( From TradingView  )
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​​​​The Situation

The Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP) is within a steep Rising
​Wedge technical pattern ​that ​​started on January 20 ​2016 ​as ​shown ​​
​by the ​​fisrt chart below.
(Red Thick Trendlines)

We reached on March 11 the highest price ever on that ETF - 52.65.
​(See first chart below - Ellipse)

On February 22 2016, we had the 20 DMA (Day Moving Average -
​line - 1rst chart below) crossed above the 50 DMA (Red Line -
​1rst chart below​)
​: a good technical sign for the ​Consumer Staples ​Sector.​

We broke on March 3 2016 a Major Resistance Trendline that started since January 22 2015 for the Consumer ​Staples ​Sector ETF (XLP). (See first chart below - Thick grey line)

Taking a look at a bigger picture (weekly chart) gives us a better view of that strong break out move in March 2016 for the XLP ETF. (See second chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse). All that with a strong Volume in February and March 2016 which it make a stronger technical break out case. (See second chart below - Bottom Ellipse).

The Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP) started to outperform compare ​to ​​the ​Mighty SP500  (SPY ETF) since November 9 2015 ​​and ​the ​50 DMA (Day Moving Average) on that ratio ​turned ​south ​on December 17 2015.
​(See third chart below - Red Line). The break out on a relative basis happened on January 6 2016.
​​(See third chart below - Thick grey trendline - Ellipse)

​​​But the most interesting part is that each time we had on a Relative Basis (ratio of XLP over SP500 Index - SPY ETF) a strong outperformance of the Consumer Staples (based on a 10 Months Moving Average), then it was a Major Technical Sign that the Mighty SP500 was in a topping process as shown by the fourth chart below.
That is my Canary in the Coal Mine.​ (See fourth chart below - Red lines - Top Panel Ratio - Bottom Panel SP500 Index).



The Consumer Staples Sector - XLP: Canary in the coal mine?  $SPY, $XLP #Trading #xlp #SP500
Consumer Staples Sector ​ ETF XLP
over SP500 Index (SPY ETF)
Daily Candles​

Consumer Staples Sector  ETF XLP
Daily Candles​
​20 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Yellow Line )​​
50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​

Consumer Staples Sector ETF XLP
Weekly Candles​

Consumer Staples Sector ​ ETF XLP
over SP500 Index (SPY ETF)
Monthly Candles​ - Top Panel
10 MMA ( Month Moving Average - Red Line )​​​

SP500 Index​​ - Bar Chart - Bottom Panel