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Consumers ETFs: My Canary in the Coal Mine?
September  19 2016 ( TradingView  )
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A few things have been puzzling me lately as the market behavior is quite
atypical in terms of risk taking and sectors rotation...

But the release of the US Retail Sales number last week was the Iceberg itself as:
​​​​-The Year-Over-Year in % for the US Retail Sales is at +2.0% for the ​Seasonally
​Adjusted number​ and only +0.2% for the Non Seasonally Adjusted.​
- Uneven Consumer Discretionary behavior: Food Services​ and Sporting
Goods quite strong and Clothing and ​Electronics on the weak side...
- We can ask ourselves is ​the whole market can keep up without ​taking into
​account ​the US Consumer which makes 70% of the whole economy.​​​

As the US consumer is starting to show some weakness, the two main consumer ETFs (XLY and XLP) are at Technical Crossroads:
1) ​​The Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF (XLY) tested last week a Major ​Support Trendline that started back since on February 11 2016
 (See first chart below - Blue  Trendline - Ellipse). Also last week, It did kiss the 200 DMA (Day Moving Average) (See first chart below - 200 DMA - Green Line - Ellipse)
2) The Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP) tested also last week the Major Support Trendline that started back since April 22 2016.
(See second chart below - Red Trendline - Ellipse). As the XLY, the XLP ETF did flirted last week with the 200 DMA (See second chart below - Green Line - Ellipse)
​3) ​​​​​The Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF (XLY) started to ​under perform on a relative basis compare to the ​Mighty SP500 Index (SPY ETF) since November 2015. (See third chart below)... and the XLY ETF  is back testing the Major Support Trendline on a relative basis that started back since November 2008! ​​ (See third chart below - Bottom Red Trendline - Ellipse) and below the 200 DMA on that ratio since May 11 2016.
4) The Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP) started to under perform compare ​to ​​the ​Mighty SP500 (SPY ETF) (ratio of XLP vs SPY ETF) since July 6 2016 ​​(See fourth chart below - Red Trendline- Ellipse) and also below the ​200 DMA (Day Moving Average) on that ratio ​since July 27 2016.

​​​​What puzzle me tremendously though is that the XLY ETF on a relative basis compare to the Consumer Staples Sector (XLP ETF), we see on a Monthly CHart that Discretionary spending ETF is underperforming the XLP ETF. Few of us realize that we broke on January 2016 a Major Monthly Support Trendline on a relative basis (ratio of XLY over XLP) and now below the 24 month moving average on that.
(See fifth chart below - Green Line)

The last time it did happen was on September 2007 and a few months later a Major Bear Market occured.
 (See fifth chart below - Blue Trenline - Vertical Amber Line)

​​The next few weeks will be critical for the Consumers ETFs XLY and XLP; IF we start to see broken supports price wise and on a relative basis on those two ETFS, then it will become my Canary in the Coal Mine...
Consumers ETFs: My Canary in the Coal Mine? $SPY, $XLY #retail #investing #sp500 #sales  #stocks #consumers



1) Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF XLY 
​Daily Candles​
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Red Line )​​
​200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​

Financialiceberg.Com
Financialiceberg.Com
3) Daily RATIO
Consumer Discretionary ​Sector ETF XLY
over SP500 Index - SPY ETF ( Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )​
​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​

5) Montly RATIO
Consumer Discretionary ​ Sector ETF XLY
over Consumer Staples Sector - XLP ETF ( Candles )
3 MMA ( Yellow Line )​
​12 MMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
24 MMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​

Financialiceberg.Com
2) Consumer Staples Sector ETF XLP 
​Daily Candles​
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )​
50 DMA ( Red Line )​​
​200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​

4) Daily RATIO
Consumer Staples ​Sector ETF XLP
over SP500 Index - SPY ETF ( Candles )
20 DMA ( Yellow Line )​
​50 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Red Line )​​
200 DMA ( Day Moving Average - Green Line )​