Always consider hidden risks
Desloges CFA is a professional investment consultant/ blogger/ trader
with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side. I
have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and
worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers. More...
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February 11 SPY ETF Technicals: Major Support Trendline in Jeopardy ? But the most interesting technical factor is that we are near testing again the Daily Major Support Trendline that started back on October 15 2014 and near of a break down. This market is more 2011 than 2008, say analysts, complete with ‘quite severe’ rolling bear market Financial markets have been flashing a lot of warning signs in the past month that have spooked investors and led to a flight from risk for much of this year, drawing parallels to the financial crisis of 2008. Euro PIIGS Starting To Squeal Again The stock markets of the so-called PIIGS are breaking down on an absolute and relative basis – not a positive development for global markets. Will Dividend Stocks Save You In A Bear Market? In recent years, many investors have been attracted to the "safety" and "wealth-building" appeal of dividend stocks. Therefore, it is prudent to examine history and ask: Will my net worth take a big hit holding blue-chip dividend payers in the next bear market? Why Comparing Dividend Yields To Interest Rates Is A Dumb Idea I’m hearing a lot of folks these days draw attention to the fact that the dividend yield on the S&P 500 (2.17%) is now greater than the yield on the 10-year treasury note (1.7%). In doing so, they are obviously making the case that stocks are undervalued relative to bonds... It Was Never About Oil Part 2; It Was Always Leverage and Volatility The entire point of leveraged positions is the margin of safety. February 10 DJ Transportation: Finally Outperforming ? As the Dow Jones Transportation is finally rebounding, Bulls need a weekly close above the Monthly Major Trendline that started back on March 2009 to see a bigger bull impulse and not only a dead cat bounce. SP TSX60 Index (XIU ETF): 50 DMA Rejected ? But the most interesting technical factor is that at the same time the 50 DMA was rejected, we were testing the resistance trendline from the PVT indicator. Market “panic” still just a below average correction This seemingly full-blown market panic has not even reached the average S&P 500 correction since 1949 yet. It Was Never About Oil The link between stock prices and oil has been especially high of late, and that has left quite a few traders and experts stumped. For a good long while any impact from oil was denied as only “transitory” or even helpful to consumers through some sort of “tax cut” effect. In January 2016, however, liquidations appeared regularly in one alongside the other. This is/was not supposed to occur. New SEC Rule Proposals Aimed at ETFs May Chase Investors Into ETNs "An unintended consequence." ‘Flashing warning signs’: Canadian markets bracing for ‘dramatic’ Bank of Canada action — and a recession Recent moves in Canadian financial markets suggest that investors see increased odds of a recession this year and the potential for “dramatic action” from the Bank of Canada. February 9 SP500 Index: US Dollar Driven ? But the most interesting technical factor is that the Mighty SP500 Index seen by International players including the currency effect (US Dollar Index - DXY ) is testing a Major Support Trendline that started back on August 2011. It could become a game changer for International portfolio managers. This Is What Stocks Do What this says in simple terms is that stock declines are extremely common, or, said differently, this is what stocks do. They go down, sometimes a lot. And then they recover. Quickly. This Chart Shows 'Deteriorating Liquidity' Is at the Heart of Market Carnage Not a good signal for credit. Bonds Continue To Flash Warning Signs For Stocks The recent spike in the demand for Treasuries relative to the demand for SPY aligns with the bigger picture concerns outlined in this week's stock market... Credit Markets Continue to Show Signs of Stress - Caution Warranted With credit default swaps spiking in recent weeks among a wide number of major financial institutions—most notably Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank—it's time to take a look at the overall credit markets for signs of contagion/crisis. February 8 SP500 High Beta Stocks: Still Underperforming ? But the most interesting technical pattern here is that we continue to have a Lower Risk Pattern Behavior on a Weekly Chart as the Mighty SP500 Index are still above that support trendline that started since October 2014; what a divergence! SP TSX60 and SP500: Relative Break Out ? On a Relative Basis ( XIU ETF over SPY ETF ), we are testing the resistance trendline from a Major Falling Wedge that started since May 2009.
When Stocks Crash and Easy Money Doesn't Help Put simply, the Federal Reserve has created the third speculative bubble in 15 years in return for real economic improvements that amount to literally a fraction of 1% from where we would otherwise have been. Here's the truth about the stock market in 16 charts Every major sell-off in history has been accompanied by a mix of economic concerns, monetary policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, or some other source of consternation that might make a rational person demand a higher premium for putting their capital at risk. The details are different each time. But structurally, it's generally the same story: it's risky out there. Mind The Gaps About a month ago former Fed head, Richard Fisher, came out and confirmed the idea that the FOMC’s quantitative easing policies over the past seven years have pushed prices of risk assets, including stocks, beyond what would otherwise be supported by their fundamentals. Share buyback machine remains in overdrive and experts warn it will end badly Companies are draining funds with buybacks, instead of investing in growth February 4 SP500 Financials HVol: Capitulation Wave ? But the most interesting technical factor is that the Historical Volatility ( HVol ) on SP500 Financial Sector ( SRFI ) is spiking at a time that we retested the previous low reached back in February 2014 on SRFI then at the 276.34 level. A tiny form of capitulation we have seen yesterday on Financials. Bulls need to protect that 276 handle zone at all costs from now on... Opinion: It’s the earnings, stupid (and they’re going down) Sharply lower S&P 500 profits is a warning for stock investors Are Passive Investors Taking On Far More Risk Than They Realize? …as this form of investing becomes more and more popular, the risk of mispricings (and even bubbles) in the markets grows with it because it completely abandons the basic process of analyzing value and risk. Bill Gross sees ‘shades of 2007’ in latest investment outlook Bond king Bill Gross has one question for central banks: ‘How’s it workin’ for ya?’ It’s Groundhog Day Again For The Rising Rates Crowd Yet another attempt at rising interest rates has spectacularly fizzled out. February 3 Nasdaq 100 vs SP100 Ratio: Near Bubble Zone ? The market still favor the technology stocks over the broad stock market indices. As history repeat itself, we must acknowledge that getting over that Resistance Trendline is getting into a Bubble Game and we must be aware of that when investing...
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