FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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March 27

SP500 Financials HVol: Very Unusual Trading Behavior ?
But what is interesting, it is that HVol is getting lower in a bear trend ( broken 50 DMA ) with Financials, a very unusual trading behavior.

How Different Sectors of the Market Perform Once the Fed Starts Hiking Rates  As the market prepares for the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes, Credit Suisse is out with a note titled "Lessons for Liftoff" that analyzes what rate hikes actually mean for markets.

​Analyzing Apple's Expected Cash Dividend Increase In April
Much of the significance underpinning Apple's buyback and dividends has been lost on market observers as the focus remains on the near-term trade, ignoring capital management's long-term signaling effect.


​​​​March 26

VIX and SP500: No Fear Priced In that Market ​?
Also observe that the SP500 index is near a Major Support Trendline ​that started back in February 2015.​​
Breaking that Support Trendline will add to the new upward trend in the VIX and finally some fear being priced.


​Rosenberg: These are the four obstacles facing the U.S. stock market
Earnings momentum, valuations, the economy and the U.S. dollar - all represent challenges for the U.S. stock market.

​Technical Observation of the Day: Break Down on Apple - AAPL
​On March 25, Apple Shares closed below the Support Trendline then at $125.28 from an Old Wedge that started on February 17.

Short interest in Apple is near an all-time low
​​High-risk bets against the stock are increasingly unpopular.

​​​​​March 25

SP500 Index Bull% Index: Still Quite Bullish ?
But getting over the 200 DMA on that Indicator ( now at 71.44 - ​red line chart below ) have been in the past a first warning sign ​of overbought conditions building up.

​​​​Opinion: You won’t know the bull market is over until the bear is here
Even market timers get taken by surprise.

​Will Apple Be The First Trillion-Dollar Company?
One of Apple Inc.'s biggest believers on Wall Street is getting even more bullish.

​​March 24

SP600 : Volume A/D: Overbought Zone ?
This ratio is now within the overbought zone. And also the Bollinger Band is getting near the 0.80 threshold level also associated with market near overbought territory .

TSX60, Cdn Dollar and SP100: Canadian Stocks Cheapest since May 2005 ?
On a relative basis, the last time it was that cheap for the Canadian Stocks was in May 2005.

Four signs that U.S. market momentum may be losing steam
There are many different factors that can influence markets, but among the most powerful is momentum for the simple reason that people find comfort and safety in doing what everyone else is doing.

​​U.S. Broker Survey shows that Android Switchers to the iPhone is on the Increase, Especially in ChinaAccording to Arcuri, "Nearly 20% of iPhone 6/6+ owners across all markets surveyed said their new device replaced a competitor's smartphone, of which 83% were Android.

​​​​​March 23

E-Mini SP500 Futures COT: Small Speculators: Longest Ever ?
​Small Speculators are increasing their Long Positions since the beginning
​of the new Year at a tremendous pace.


SP500 and the Yen: Follow the Yen My Dear ?
And each year beginning 1 week earlier from monthe end are the window dressing process where rapatriation of assets migration start. Japanese Institutions are selling foreign assets ( mainly US assets ) to come back into Japanese assets.

​​SP500 Technology Bull% Index: The Apple Experiment - AAPL ?
​That % indicator on Technology Stocks is again over a level of 80% ​treshold since February 20 ( spot index at 83.3%); it is now into the ​overbought level as history suggest.

Technical Observation of the Day: Broken 20 DMA on Apple
​On March 20, Apple Shares closed below the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) then at $127.66.

​Why The Buyback Binge Is Not As Bullish As You May Think

Why? Because companies may be the worst market timers there are.

​Apple Flash Crash: ​​The Farce That Is The "Market" In One Chart
​​This is what happened to the world's most valuable company in the last minutes of trading, a nearly $10 billion move in market cap in seconds.... on nothing.

​​​​​March 20

SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 21.5% ?
Bullish Sentiment is weakening tremendously as we are near an all time high ​on the Stock Market.

The Material Sector (XLB): Near Breaking Down ?
The Material Sector ETF ( XLB ) is testing a Major Support ​Trendline that started ​on January 14 2015 . ​The level for a Break Down ​today is 49.03

SP500: Cash Balances Hit New Record, Cap Ex Projected to Fall 3.4%
Despite falling oil prices, the Energy sector recorded the largest growth in CapEx at 15.8%. This sector also spent the largest dollar amount on CapEx of all 10 sectors in the index at $63.8 billion.

Why critics should apologize to Apple’s Tim Cook
​Think back several months; you may recall that some pundits thought Apple CEO Tim Cook wasn’t up to the job. Today there’s little evidence to justify those claims. Here are a few statistics to prove how Cook did the right thing keeping his cool while people got used to him.

​​​​​​​March 19

SP500 and Emerging Markets ( IVV - EEM ): SP500 Still Outperform ?
Observe that on a relative basis ( ratio of EEM over IVV ), ​​the last time we had this ratio at that level was back in March 2005.

The Energy Sector (XLE): Wall of Resistance ?
XLE ETF is testing a Wall of Resistance: A resistance Trendline that started on February 17 now at 77.54, The 50 DMA now at 77.56​ and the The 20 DMA now at 77.85.

​​Technical Observation of the Day: Break Out on Apple - AAPL
On March 18, Apple Shares closed above the Resistance Trendline then at $126.70 from a Downtrend Channel that started on ​February 26. Also on March 18, Apple Shares closed above the 20 DMA  then at $127.67.
​​
Small Caps Break Out
Best action was to be found in the Russell 2000. It managed to break key resistance and bank some distance from the year long consolidation.
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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​