FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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January 26

SP500, US Dollar and Foreign Profits : A Concern ?
And finally, market participants will start to realize sooner than later that a new valuation process is needed for the SP500...​​

SP500 Consumer Discretionary Bullish % Index: One of the Lowest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Two Years ? But it is reaching levels near the 45% zone which have been associated with previous reversal in Sentiment .

The Strong Dollar Is Always Good, Except When It Isn’t
​All of which suggests that a strong dollar isn’t entirely and always good, whatever the Treasury secretary says.

​​​​Handicapping Apple's earnings
​Whether it goes up or down from there depends — at least in theory — on how big last quarter was and what kind of guidance Apple gives for the one that ends in March.

​January 23

​SP500 : Price Volume Trend: A Weak Rally according to PVT ?
And we have a lower PVT today than the last upleg peak ​on Janaury 8; the divergence prevail...

The Energy Sector : Lowest Level Since July 2005 on a Relative Basis ?
Quite interesting to note that we closed on January 22 above the 20 DMA  then at 76.94.

Technical Observation of the Day: Closed above the 50 DMA on Apple-AAPL
On January 22, Apple Shares closed above the 50 DMA then at $112.07

​​A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning
Seven Significant Changes for the Next Five Years
​​
​​​​​Why Apple Inc. Will Beat The Market In 2015
The company is grossly undervalued as compared to other PC or phone manufacturers in terms of potential growth, margins, and long-term prospects.

​​January 22

​Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial ratio: Near a Major Support Trendline ?
That ratio​​ (Russell 2000 over DJ Industrial) is near testing a Major Support Trendline that started back on October 10 2014.

SP500 Financials Bull% Index: One of the Lowest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Three Years ?It reached on January 21 a level not seen since October 2014 ​and previously from July to August 2012. It is one of the Lowest Bullish Sentiment of the Past Three Years.

​​​Technical Observation of the Day: Tested the 20 DMA on Apple - AAPL
On January 21, Apple Shares tested the 20 DMA then at $110.22 and failed to close above.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - January
Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, this is one of the better ones as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes.
​​
Increased adoption of iPhone 6 Plus in U.S., China set to boost Apple Inc profit marginsUsage data from Apple's two largest markets is showing a significant increase in buyers' preference for the large display of iPhone 6 Plus as supply increases, indicating a richer profit mix destined to polish the company's earnings.

​J​anuary 21

SP500 and Russel 1000 Financial Services and VIX: Fear Already Priced Into the Market ?Since December 31, that ratio fell gradually and reached the zone associated with a fear factor already priced into the market and overdone on a ​short term basis.

The Consumer Staples Sector - XLP : Triple Top ?
We are into a Triple Top Pattern​​ that started ​on December 24. We need a daily close above 49.69 to have a break out.​

Technical Observation of the Day: Tested a Major Resistance on the Wedge on Apple - AAPLOn January 20, Apple Shares tested a Major Resistance on the Wedge that started on January 8 at $108.70

The State of the Economy, in Eight Charts
​​Here are eight charts that describe the state of the union in economic terms.

​​China Mobile's 4G Growth Could Help Apple All Through 2015
It should be a major positive for Apple especially since the two companies only started selling iPhones in January last year.

​January 20

The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Still Expecting High Volatility Ahead ?VIX/GOLD correlation getting near 0.75 on January 16 and VIX ​still over 14, indicating still high volatility ahead...

SP500 Financials ( XLF ): Tested the 200 DMA and almost broke a Major Support Trendline ?Only breaking up a Major Resistance Trendline at 23.77 will gives us ​another Real Bullish Impulse​.

Technical Observation of the Day: Tested a Major Support Trendline on Apple - AAPLOn January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97 and failed to break it for now.

​​Bank Earnings Hit Bank Index As 6 Year Trend Line Falls
The bank index penetrated its 6 year rising trend line. Yep, this is the first time since 2009 that the bank index closed BELOW the log trend line that has held this uptrend intact.

Why a Strengthened Dollar Is A Cause Of Concern For Apple ?
​​The strengthening of the dollar continues to be a point of concern for the likes of Apple which rely heavily on international markets for total sales.

​​​​​January 19

SP500 and Emerging Markets: On a Relative Basis Cheapest Since
​June 2005 ?
Also quite interesting to look at a rising wedge on the ​​EEM ETF and a falling wedge on the IVV ETF.

Are the Baltic Dry Index Telling Us to Expect a Weaker Stock Market ?
The Baltic Dry Index is considered an impartial leading indicator (predictor of future economic activity) because it is free from speculation.

Technical Observation of the Day: Tested a Major Support Trendline on Apple - AAPLOn January 16, Apple Shares tested a Major Support Trendline that started on October 15 then at $105.97 and failed to break it for now.

​​A tangle of anxieties
As markets slide, investors should worry more about some price drops than others.

​The Disruptive Apple – An Infographic
​​Here’s a look at how Apple has disrupted the tech market in the past, and what type of disruptive ideas we can expect from them in the future.

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Trading SP500 - All you need in terms of information to trade E-Mini SP500 Futures​
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Trading Apple - All you need in terms of information to trade Apple Shares​