FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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July 28

China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level ​?
Also observe that this ratio ( CBOE China ETF Volatility Index to the ​VIX ) is almost at the higher level of the past 3 years - telling me that the level of speculation is still quite high....

Russell 2000 and DJ Industrial Ratio: At Crossroads ?
But the most interesting factor is that we are testing a Major Support Trendline that started back on October 10 ​2014 on that ratio​​ ( Russell 2000 over DJ Industrial ). The Russell 2000 is definitively at Crossroads now...​​

S&P 500 Propped Up by Just 2 Sectors Shows Bull Market Aging
More than 100 percent of this year’s increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is attributable to two sectors, health-care and retail. That’s the tightest clustering for an advancing year since at least 2000, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Apple's Gross Margins Were Impacted By The Watch
One of the analysis I do on Apple’s finances every quarter is to adjust the company’s reported gross margin for its warranty accruals. Apple’s warranty charges have ranged from 0.9% to 3.7% of total revenue since fiscal 2007. I believe it is worthwhile to understand the changes and dynamics to them as it provides insight into what are the “true” costs of Apple’s products.

​​​​​​​July 27

SP600 : Volume A/D: Oversold Zone ?
Observe also that we came back near the 200 DMA ​( Day Moving ​Average ) where past reversal occured.

​​​​TSX Index Bull% Index: Weakest Bullish Sentiment since December 2014 ?
But the most interesting is that on July 24, we did have the 50 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) getting below the 200 DMA: a Death Cross Technical Pattern.​​ Also we are at the Major Support Trendline that started back in October 2014: the TSX is at crossroads here...

​​The Material Sector (XLB): Cheapest since July 2003 ?
The Material Sector ETF ( XLB ) broke on June 24 a Wedge Pattern that started ​on February 25 2015.
On July 24, it also broke a Major Support Trendline that started back on February 5 2015, a bad technical sign.


Memorize This, Earn a Dollar - John P. Hussman

Put simply, valuation drives long-term returns, and investor risk-preferences drive returns over shorter portions of the market cycle. When measures of both are hard-negative, as they are now, investors should think carefully about their own risk-tolerance and their ability to sustain losses without abandoning their discipline, making sure to align their investments with the actual horizon over which they will need to spend the funds.

Opinion: Here’s why Apple can take a bite out of your funds and ETFs
‘If you have two or three growth funds, there’s a good chance you own more Apple than you expect.’
Todd Rosenbluth



​​​​​​​July 23

SP500 CBOE SKEW Index: Spiking ?
The option market is telling us to expect the market to an atypical return profile since the SKEW is spiking since July 7 and that the 20 and 50 DMAs ( Day Moving Averages ) are heading higher. The 20 DMA on the SKEW ( Red Line on the chart below ) is reaching levels not seen since Mid-March 2015 and at near levels where we had previous corrections on the SP500.

Gold Miners Bullish % Index: Almost at Zero ?
That % indicator on Gold Miners Stocks is near reaching again a ​level near the 0% treshold like in November and December 2014.

Sexy Janet's Dollar Problem
The overvalued currency essentially subsidises the efforts of foreign competitors to establish a US beachhead and expand from there. This is particularly acute in manufacturing.

Apple, Inc. Delivers a Solid Q3... and Still Looks Cheap
Apple stock continues to look like a good investment opportunity after yet another pullback.

​​​​​​​​​​​​July 22

Russell 2000 vs SP500: Critical Support Trendline ?
We are now back to the Critical Support Trendline on that upward channel that started back on October 10 2014: breaking that support will bring a lot more underperformance from the Russell 2k ve the Mighty SP500.

The Industrial Sector (XLI) : Cheapest since October 2012 ?
So in Summary, the ​​Industrial Sector ETF ( XLI ) is in total Breakdown as we broke the 20, 50 and 200 DMA, we had a Death Cross and we broke the Support Trendline from Falling Wedge. For old traders, when you have the Industrials underperforming the market, it is a serious sigh of weakness to come for the SP500...

​What Do 1987, 2003, 2009, And 2015 Have In Common?
If you have been involved with the markets over the past thirty years, you may find the sentiment statistics described in this article as the most surprising you have ever seen. Recent investor sentiment readings have reached levels of skepticism not seen since 1987, 2003, and 2009. If you know your market history, you also know those are the three best buying opportunities over the last 30 years.

Apple Profit Up 38%, but iPhone Sales Disappoint Wall Street
The disconnect between market estimates and reality sent Apple’s shares plunging in after-hours trading and highlights the expectations quandary that the company’s success has created. The lingering question among investors is how long the company, based in Cupertino, Calif., can keep growing at double-digit rates before it begins to plateau.

​​​​​​​July 21

​​SP500: High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Risk Taking Weakening ?
It does tell us that the Risk Taking Behavior is getting a lot weaker
​since the 7 DMA turned south on June 16 2015.


NYSE New Highs / New Lows and SP500: Divergence ?
But the most interesting fact is that the NYSE Index compare to the Mighty SP500 Index reached a level on July 20 2015 not seen since February 2001 and are not near a Major Reversal as the 20 DMA ( Day Moving Average ) is still downward​. So underperformance of the NYSE over the SP500 prevail.

​Getting High on Their Own Supply
​​Corporate stock buybacks put a floor under earnings

Apple Q3 Earnings Preview: iPhone 6 Demand Eats Away At Android
Analyst consensus estimates place projected iPhone sales for Apple’s 2015 fiscal third-quarter at around 50 million units, a 42 percent increase year over year. Europe and China were likely the biggest contributors to iPhone sales, according to data from Kantar WorldPanel.

​​​​July 20

The VIX/ Gold Correlation US$ - SP500: Expecting Higher Volatility Ahead ?

Observe the US Dollar two previous peak at the Resistance Trendline; one was back on April 13 and the other was on June 1. VIX/GOLD correlation was then near the critical zone of 0.70.
In both cases,​ USD started a huge move in ​a higher Volatility set up; looks like the same pattern to me today. ​​


SP500 Consumer Discretionary (XLY): A Toppish Sign ?
This is one of the ​​strongest Relative Sentiment Level of the past three years.

Are We in a Bull Market? Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!

The low-yield environment manufactured by central banks has encouraged and precipitated yield-seeking speculation. Investors and speculators alike have taken up a near-religious conviction in the demi-god status of central bankers. Will these central bankers continue to enjoy their god like status indefinitely or will they disappoint their followers?

Apple Q3 Earnings Preview: Will The Chinese Momentum Hold Up?
Greater China – which includes China, Taiwan and Hong Kong – has emerged as the biggest driver of Apple’s growth in recent quarters. Revenues from the region rose by 71% year-over-year to about $16.82 billion (over 3x the growth rate of Europe and the Americas regions) during Q2 FY’15. China also emerged Apple’s largest market for the iPhone, overtaking the United States.

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