FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight​

September 28

Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ: Stairway to Heaven?
QQQ is in the process of breaking a Monthly Major Resistance Trendline that started back since March 2000!.

Canadian Corporate Bonds ETF XCB: Resistance Zone?
But the most interesting factor is that ​we are now back testing the .764 Fibonacci Zone.

Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

October Worst Month of Election Year
But October has also been a turnaround month—a “bear killer”.
​​

​​​Is Thils Seeping Dragon Ready To Awaken?
The Chinese stock market has been eerily quiet of late – is that about to change?

A (Significant) Tale Of Two Banks
“Global turmoil” or “volatile conditions” is not actually limited to just the specific liquidation episodes of August 2015 and January/February 2016. There is much, much more going on here than is being reported.

Maybe it’s time America gets rid of most of its cash
As Rogoff explains, the cash economy has also limited what economic planners around the globe could do to revive their countries after the recession.


​​​​​​​​September 27

Second Real Test for Dividend Yield Chasers?
The Federal Reserve still undecided on further rates hikes just provide enough uncertainties to bring finally a consolidation phase within the the Yield Chasers Investment Sphere.

Financial Sector (XLF) : Deutsche Bank Contagion?
​​​​I think the broad market (SPY ETF) need the Financials to continue to perform well; as we broke the Supports on XLF ETF (thanks to the FED and Deutsche Bank), it is becoming almost mission impossible to reach a new high in the SP500 Index without their participation... ​

The Dollar Perspective Matters
​The world has a big “dollar” problem, not an unending string of smaller individual problems that just so happen to all involve dollar funding.
​​
​​​​​Reports Of The TED Spread’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated
We already know the consensus is to dismiss the recent widening of the TED spread to new money market regulations. The market tells us as much. But is this explanation valid? Is it enough?

​​The Not so Silent Demise of Deutsche Bank
Recently the IMF’s June Report stated that it regarded Deutsche Bank as a “systemic risk” to world banking.

​​​Treasury market’s biggest buyers are selling as never before
Holders like China and Japan have culled their stakes in Treasuries for three consecutive quarters, the most sustained pullback on record.
​​

​What Do We Do Now?
We are doomed to repeat history, whether we've studied it or not, because human failings span across the ages.

​​​
​September 26

Welcome to my Wedge World
So as few of us realize is that most of the main US Financial Assets are under Wedge Technical Pattern ready to breakout or breakdown.

SP500 Technology ETF (XLK): The Apple Experiment?
Apple Shares seasonality are turning bearish (from the past 10 years) from September 22 to October 5. So expect also some consolidation to the ​Technology Sector ETF XLK. Welcome to the Apple Experiment...

​The most important charts in the world from the brightest minds on Wall Street
Once again, we’ve asked some of the sharpest strategists, economists, and reporters for one chart that’s at the top of their minds right now.

​How Janet Yellen Rationalizes The Most Pervasive Financial Bubble
“Asset values aren’t out of line with historical norms.” -Janet Yellen, 9/21/16

​End-of-Q3 challenging—final five trading days S&P 500 down 7 of last 8 years

​​…And The Treasury Market Is Trying Very Hard To Kill The Legend
The bond market at its core is money, meaning inflation and opportunity. So long as there continues to be less of both, the only result can be lower interest rates on the whole.

​​​​​September 22

FED Stealth Tightening
All that to say that in fact, US official monetary policy yesterday have been unchanged BUT the market pressure coming from regulations is in fact pricing a rate hike anyway!

US Treasury Bond TLT ETF: At Technical Crossroads?
​But for me the most critical level to hold is the previous Breakout Trendline on the TLT ETF
​​
The Shrinking U.S. Stock Market
Unofficially speaking, as measured by the number of domestic firms listed on U.S. stock exchanges, the U.S. stock market has shrunk to the lowest level on record in data that extends back to 1975

Yellen’s Words Are Irrelevant; ‘It’ Is In Her Numbers
As for near-term economic growth, GDP estimates for this year were again trimmed with a new forecast for more of the same economic stagnation
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​​​​​​​September 21

Monthly Technical Charts Potpourri on FE(D - Day)
​Brace for Volatility as most of the Financial Assets are technically ready to make a big move...​

Active management is not dead... but high fees are, say top fund buyers
Even if active management came into favor, I don’t think the message that fees matter is going to reverse,’ said Michael Iachini

​​
Top Sectors to Ponder For the “Best Six Months”
Sector seasonality has been reasonably on track since September 2009 with many sectors producing the bulk of their annual gains during their traditionally favorable periods 
​​

Earnings And Valuations Update; Still Nowhere Near Good
It is a very precarious position for equities overall; earnings that just won’t grow

Junk Bonds Officially Enter ‘Bubble’ Territory
For what it’s worth, the last time junk bonds crossed this valuation threshold was May of 2008. 

​​September 20

SP500 High/Low Beta ETFs: Divergence?
That Risk Taking behavioris at the highest level since April 2016 at only a few days of a Federal Reserve Meeting.​​

Value investing is quite possibly the worst idea…EVER
In short, value investing the past few years has been a bad experience, but things can get a lot worse before they can get better.
​​

Great Graphic: US Recovery from the Great Recession

​​Bond Bubble has Finally Reached its Apogee
​The bond bubble has grown so immense that if, or when, central banks ever begin to reverse monetary policy it will cause yields to spike across the globe.

​​More Evidence Of That ‘Something’ In ‘Dollars’
Global central banks (not just China) are attempting to intervene and calm “dollar” (funding) markets so that private entities (local banks and their “dollar short”) aren’t forced into hugely disruptive liquidations, able then to carry out the normal course of trade under the “dollar short.”

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​September 19

Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ: The Apple Experiment?
QQQ ETF is near making new highs price wise (mainly from Apple contribution up +25.6% since June 27 vs SPY ETF up only +7.4%) and is in the process of breaking a Monthly Major Resistance Trendline that started back since March 2000!.

Consumers ETFs: My Canary in the Coal Mine?
The next few weeks will be critical for the Consumers ETFs XLY and XLP; IF we start to see broken supports price wise and on a relative basis on those two ETFS, then it will become my Canary in the Coal Mine...


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