Desloges CFA is a professional investment consultant/ blogger/ trader
with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.
have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and
worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers. More...
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Taking some vacation; I will be back May 9. April 26 DJ Transportation: At Technical Crossroads? But most importantly, the Dow Jones Transportation was rejected strongly on a relative basis (Dow Jones Industrials and the SP500 Index) by failing to stay above the ultimate 200 DMA.
Canadian Short Term Bond (XSB ETF): Breakdown? Interesting to observe that most of the previous correction in price for the XSB ETF came after a wave of Canadian Dollar strength versus the US Dollar. Lessons From The Iron Law of Equilibrium - John P. Hussman The main wild card here is that a moderate further improvement in market internals could signal a more durable shift toward risk-seeking among investors. We have to allow for the possibility that the Fed is blind enough to encourage speculation until another financial crisis becomes unstoppable.
The ‘most-hated stock rally’ could be primed for a May correction Some technicians see the bull market exhausting itself With Stocks Near All-Time Highs, Financial Stress Turns Negative Since negative financial conditions do not always correspond with a major market top (as we saw in 2010, 2011, and, briefly, in 2012), it will be important to monitor whether financial conditions and stock prices are giving the same message going forward. Dangerous Divergence Today, only 50% report having stock investments. This 22% drop is more than double the changes seen in stock investing among higher and lower income groups. Millions of middle class families have had to liquidate stock holdings just to survive in this ongoing Main Street recession. Upping The Credit Cycle Pressure Since we are dealing with the “dollar”, really, at the heart of all this, it is important to note that the credit cycle inflection does not just apply to US circumstances. It shows up at various points around the world, especially where it could do the most further damage: China April 20
SPY ETF Technicals: The Ultimate Battle for Bulls? But looking at the big picture (Monthly Candles Chart on SPY ETF) shows us the most interesting technical factor; we are into a lower highs and lower lows technical pattern since May 2015 and now getting near the Resistance Zone on that Monthly Downward Channel...
A Broken Stock Market Is What Investors Game Personally, I'm disaffected with the entire market mechanism. It was once the driver of capitalism, serving as a freely floating market that was influenced by the winds of economic change. It was gently guided by central-bank policy at times, but not so muddied that its dirty water looked like a black hole of uncertainty. Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It’s 2008 All Over Again Unfortunately, the stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now. Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.
Semiconductors Tell the Real Story of GDP Taken together, semiconductor market today is economic need tomorrow. Or, typically four months from now. In fact, the tight semiconductor production cycle, coupled with the upstream position in the overall manufacturing life cycle, gives semiconductors at least a one-quarter lead. April 19 Russell 2000: Testing Major Resistance? But the real interesting part is that the Russell 2000 Index price wise strong battle to breakout the Major Resistance Trendline that started back since June 23 2015, the peak ever in that stock index.
A Closer Look At China’s ‘Dollar’ Gap It also suggests that China as the global economy pivot can’t even maintain proportionality between external demand for its own products and its own demand for foreign resources; the “dollar” is actually amplifying the depressive nature globally April 18
Global Equities Stake Key Technical Ground The global equity market had a big week, arguably overcoming key levels of technical resistance…for now. Can anything stop this global cycle of doom? The International Monetary Fund is concerned that the global economic recovery has taken too long. Kaushik Basu, chief economist of the World Bank, says the financial crisis has left a “festering wound” that is “refusing to heal”. Pay Attention to the Next Few Weeks The next couple of weeks will tell a story. Were the July/August and December/February down-legs the first part of a much larger correction or just a minor correction en-route to much higher prices?