FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight

December 17

SP500 Financials and VIX: A Fear Premium Already Built Into the Market ?
But Since December 16 with the spot on that ratio turning down at level which usually we see a turnaround...

Gold Miners Bullish % Index: At 0% Really ?
That % indicator on Gold Miners Stocks reached again a level of 0% treshold like in March to July 2013.

Technical Observation of the Day: Broke the 20 + 50 DMA on Facebook - FB
​​On December 16, Facebook Shares broke the 20 DMA then at $75.69 and the 50 DMA then at $75.77.

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​​​December 16

Volume Advance-Decline of Financials: Near Oversold Zone ?
When the indicator of the ​Financials reached the zone of the -40 mark , history suggest that we can expect a bullish trend.

SP500 and Emerging Markets ( IVV - EEM ): On a Relative Basis Cheapest Since March 2005 ?
EEM is underperforming Tremendously since October 2010 and there is no clue in sight for a reversal unless we break the donward channel.

Technical Observation of the Day: Broke the 50 DMA on Apple - AAPL
On December 15, on Apple, it did break the 50 DMA ​then at $108.74
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​​​​​​​December 15

​Are the Baltic Dry Index Telling Us to Expect a Weaker Stock Market ?
...it does not have a direct link between the Baltic Dry Index and the SP500 at all.

SP500 Financials ( XLF ): False Break Out ?
On December 12, broke the 20 DMA at 24.40 ​and ​the major support trendline and stand now at 24.47.

The Semiconductor Sector (SMH) : Support Trendline and 20 DMA Broken ?
The Semiconductor Sector ETF broke the Major Support Trendline at 54.54 that started on July 3rd 2014.

​​Canadian and US Energy Sector and Cdn Dollar: Canadian Oil Assets at Huge Discount ?
On a relative basis, the last time it was that cheap for the Canadian Oil Energy Sector was in July 2001.
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Technical Observation of the Day: Broken Wedge on Apple - AAPL

​On December 12, on Apple, it did break the wedge support trendline then at $111.62 and closed below it.

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​​​​​​​​December 12

Russell 2000 vs SP500: Near Break Out ?
This ratio is near breaking out the resistance trendline that started on July 1st and then can gives a real bullish impulse to the Russell on a Relative Basis to the Mighty SP500.

The Energy Sector : Lowest Level Since June 2005 on a Relative Basis ?
And on a ratio basis ( Energy Sector ETF ( XLE ) over the Mighty​ SP500 Index ), the last time it did reach that level was in June 2005.


​​​​​December 11


ETF s Volume Adv/Decl: Near Oversold Zone ​?
It is now getting near oversold territory and as history suggest, when reached, we can expect a tiny dead cat bounce within the next few trading sessions...​​

The Material Sector (XLB): Broke the 50 and 200 DMA ?
The Material Sector ETF ( XLB ) broke the 200 DMA ​then at 48.70 and the 50 DMA ​then ​at 48.36 on December 10, ​ a ​very bad technical ​sign​ indeed.​

Technical Observation of the Day: Broke the20 DMA on SPDR SP500 ETF - SPY On December 10, we broke the 20 DMA on SPY at ​$206.08

​​​​December 10

The VIX/ Gold Correlation US Dollar and SP500: Higher Volatility Ahead ?
VIX/GOLD correlation getting near 0.75 on Dec 8 and VIX was around 14, indicating more volatility ahead...

​​Internet Stocks (FDN ETF): Tested the 50 and 200 DMA ?
The Internet Index Fund tested on December 9 the 200 DMA at 59.45 and the 20 DMA at 60.09 to close well above at 60.90...

Technical Observation of the Day: Tested the 20 and 50 DMA on Facebook - FB On December 9, Facebook Shares tested the 20 DMA then at $75.15 and the 50 DMA then at $ 75.86 and closed above them​ - closing price was 76.84.

​​​​​​December 9

NYSE Summation Index: A Macro Signal : Bearish Mode ?
We reached level not seen on the Summation Index since September 8 2014 when we had a reversal in the SP500. 

SP500 Financials Bull% Index: Bullish Sentiment Near Overbought Zone ?
It reached on December 8 a level not seen since September 29.

Technical Observation of the Day: Broke the 20 DMA on Apple - AAPL
On December 8, on Apple, it did break the 20 DMA ​then at $114.82.

​​​​​December 8

SP500 : High Beta - Low Beta ETFs: Weaker Risk Taking Behavior ?
The level of risk taking according to that ratio is far from the zone reached at previous high at the beginning of July and then in mid-September 2014.

SP500 Financials Weekly: Testing Major Resistance Trendline ?
We are in the process of testing a Major Resistance Trendline at 24.98 on the XLF ETF.

Stocks to Bonds Ratio : Still into the Critical Zone ?
The only time that this ratio and the 50 DMA was at that level was in December 2007 - The Critical Zone.
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​SP500 (E-Mini) Volume Last Year and Now: Volume Down 20.9% ?
So the volume decreased with the SP500 futures making new highs; not showing a lot of conviction to me...

Technical Observation of the Day: Tested the 20 DMA on Apple - AAPL
On December 5, on Apple, it did test the 20 DMA  ​then at $114.65.

​​​​​​December 5

SP1500 Volume Advance-Decline: Cumulative Still Bullish ?
​But on a short term basis, the SP 1500 AD Volume Line is getting into a divergence..​

SP500 Consumer Discretionary Bullish % Index: Near Overbought Zone ?
But it is reaching levels near the 80% zone which is an Overbought Condition.

Technical Observation of the Day: Tested the 50 DMA on Amazon - AMZN
On December 4, AMZN tested the 50 DMA then at $ 314.47

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