FINANCIAL ICEBERG
Always consider hidden risks



Jean-Pierre Desloges CFA  is a professional  investment consultant/ blogger/ trader with over 25 years of experience working on the buy and sell-side.

​​I have researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes and worked at Pensions Funds, International Banks and Dealers.   
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Market Insight

Taking some vacation; I will be back May 9.

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April 26

​DJ Transportation: At Technical Crossroads?

But most importantly, the Dow Jones Transportation was rejected strongly on a relative basis (Dow Jones Industrials and the SP500 Index) by failing to stay above the ultimate 200 DMA.

​​Is Breadth Signaling More Than Meets The Eye In This Market?
Does an unprecedented show of positive breadth foretell a quick end to stocks’ recent struggles?

The rise of the most powerful idea in investing
The biggest story in the finance industry during the past decade might not be the 2008 crisis, or new regulation, or even record-low interest rates. Maybe it’s the shift from active to passive-investment management. In the realm of mutual funds, the change is stunning.

​​Here's What's Keeping the Stock Market Up
“Corporate repurchases are the main source of net demand for US stocks,” a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led by David Kostin noted in report out on Friday.

​​Eighth Year of Presidential Terms: Updated Charts
Based upon the less favorable Eighth Year pattern, DJIA and S&P 500 may have already or are about to reach the apogee of the rebound off of February’s lows.

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​April 25

Nasdaq Composite Index: Testing Relative Major Support?
But the real interesting part is to acknowledge that the underperformance of the Nasdaq comes from the proportion of Apple Shares within the SP500 Index at only 3.2% and 7.8% for the Nasdaq ​Composite Index.

​​​Canadian Short Term Bond (XSB ETF): Breakdown?
Interesting to observe that most of the previous correction in price for the XSB ETF came after a wave of Canadian Dollar strength versus the US Dollar.

Lessons From The Iron Law of Equilibrium - John P. Hussman

The main wild card here is that a moderate further improvement in market internals could signal a more durable shift toward risk-seeking among investors. We have to allow for the possibility that the Fed is blind enough to encourage speculation until another financial crisis becomes unstoppable.

​​The ‘most-hated stock rally’ could be primed for a May correction
Some technicians see the bull market exhausting itself

With Stocks Near All-Time Highs, Financial Stress Turns Negative 
​Since negative financial conditions do not always correspond with a major market top (as we saw in 2010, 2011, and, briefly, in 2012), it will be important to monitor whether financial conditions and stock prices are giving the same message going forward.

​​Dangerous Divergence
Today, only 50% report having stock investments. This 22% drop is more than double the changes seen in stock investing among higher and lower income groups. Millions of middle class families have had to liquidate stock holdings just to survive in this ongoing Main Street recession.

​Upping The Credit Cycle Pressure

Since we are dealing with the “dollar”, really, at the heart of all this, it is important to note that the credit cycle inflection does not just apply to US circumstances. It shows up at various points around the world, especially where it could do the most further damage: China

April 20

​SPY ETF Technicals: The Ultimate Battle for Bulls?
​​​​​​But looking at the big picture (Monthly Candles Chart on SPY ETF) shows us the most interesting technical factor; we are into a lower highs and lower ​lows technical ​pattern since May 2015 and now getting near the Resistance Zone on that Monthly Downward Channel...

The New All-Time High in SPY That Was Considered Impossible
The more important point about Tuesday's new ATH is that it occurred despite a long list of reasons a new high has been considered unlikely, if not impossible.

​A Broken Stock Market Is What Investors Game
Personally, I'm disaffected with the entire market mechanism. It was once the driver of capitalism, serving as a freely floating market that was influenced by the winds of economic change. It was gently guided by central-bank policy at times, but not so muddied that its dirty water looked like a black hole of uncertainty.

​​​Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It’s 2008 All Over Again
Unfortunately, the stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now. Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.

​​Semiconductors Tell the Real Story of GDP
Taken together, semiconductor market today is economic need tomorrow. Or, typically four months from now. In fact, the tight semiconductor production cycle, coupled with the upstream position in the overall manufacturing life cycle, gives semiconductors at least a one-quarter lead.
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​April 19

Russell 2000: Testing Major Resistance?

But the real interesting part is that the Russell 2000 Index price wise strong battle to breakout the Major Resistance Trendline that started back since June 23 2015, the peak ever in that stock index.

​​Will the next DJIA “Golden Cross” matter?
Absent a major catalyst, DJIA’s struggles are likely to persist.

​​Opinion: Why this market rally looks like a classic investor trap
Currency and economic risks weigh heavily on stocks

​​Honesty Tops Any Checklist When Looking for an Adviser

After all of that, remember to take your time. There is no hurry. Real advisers will respect this. In fact, they will be doing the same thing. It should feel like this is a mutual process, with both of you trying to determine if this relationship is a good fit.

​​A Closer Look At China’s ‘Dollar’ Gap
It also suggests that China as the global economy pivot can’t even maintain proportionality between external demand for its own products and its own demand for foreign resources; the “dollar” is actually amplifying the depressive nature globally

​​​April 18

China ETF Volatility Index and SP500: Still at Critical Level?
But the most interesting technical factor is that at the time we are testing the major Resistance Trendline that started back on April 2015 for the ratio of Volatility, we are at the support trendline on the CBOE China ETF Volatility Index and kissed the resistance trendline for the Mighty SP500.

​​​TSX Financials: My Broken Falling Wedge?

And as we tested the support trendline on a relative basis and broke the Major Resistance Trendline price wise from that weekly falling wedge, trading Volume tumbled tremendously on the XFN ETF.

Permanently High Plateaus Have Poor Precedents - John P. Hussman

Overall, the stock market continues to trace out a broad arc that we view as the top-formation of the third speculative bubble in 16 years.

​​Global Equities Stake Key Technical Ground
The global equity market had a big week, arguably overcoming key levels of technical resistance…for now.

​​Can anything stop this global cycle of doom?
​The International Monetary Fund is concerned that the global economic recovery has taken too long. Kaushik Basu, chief economist of the World Bank, says the financial crisis has left a “festering wound” that is “refusing to heal”.

​​Pay Attention to the Next Few Weeks

The next couple of weeks will tell a story. Were the July/August and December/February down-legs the first part of a much larger correction or just a minor correction en-route to much higher prices?




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