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Desloges CFA is a professional investment consultant/ blogger/ trader
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Insight August 23 Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ: Ultimate Bull Battle Zone? We re testing a Major Support Trendline that started back since November 2008! Financial Sector (XLF) : Near Major Breakout? Since July 14, the XLF ETF traded in a narrow range and kept trying to break a Major Daily Resistance Trendline that started back since May 31 2007! 2016 Investor Fund Flows Nothing Like Excessively-Optimistic 2007 Right now, the longer-term weight of the evidence remains favorable for risk-on stocks ETFs May Actually Make Weak Players Weaker I agree with that view that the market is zero sum when looking at dollar-weighted performance. BUT investors are known to be horrific market timers, regularly underperforming the return of the funds in which they invest. The Search for Yield and Emerging Markets The global search for yield in 2016– not an improvement in EM fundamentals – is what has been driving the EM rally this year August 22 SP500 Index: Steady and Puzzling Markets? But the most interesting technical factor is that the Daily Ratio (SKEW to VIX) is now at one of the highest level since 2013 SP TSX60 Index (XIU ETF): Back at the Support Zone? But the most interesting technical factor is that we are testing back that previous breakout trendline Investor Complacency Is Smashing Records Near-term volatility expectations are currently on a stretch of unprecedentedly low levels Stock Rally Is Based On More Than Just Central Banks The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index tells us the economic data has also improved since June 27 What the New SEC Money Market Fund Regulations Mean for the Financial System On Oct. 17th a new SEC rule finally comes into play that will affect money market funds and liquidity across the financial sphere The Buffett/Munger Investment Checklist When investing, we view ourselves as business analysts—not as market analysts, not as macroeconomic analysts, and not even as security analysts.”—Warren Buffett, Letter to Shareholders, 1987 Money markets deliver stealth rate rise even as Fed stands pat Corporate sector is ‘facing the effects of back-to-back hikes,’ says David Kotok August 2016 Vice Index: Is Vice Spending Slowing? The Vice Index indicates a sharp downturn in retail spending… beginning in the fourth quarter (October) August 18 Emerging Markets (EEM ETF): Relative Breakout? But the Real Major Reversal will be when we finally break the downward channel on that ratio that started back in October 2010. We are testing it now... The Energy Sector (XLE): At the Resistance Zone? Now, the XLE ETF is getting back testing the Resistance Trendline of that Rising wedge
Index trackers: The good, the bad, and the ugly Just remember the type of index tracker you plump for is one thing – but the index being tracked is a separate matter Incongruent Logic To Balance Risks Leads To Incongruent Markets With Nothing But Risk The issue is entirely the dollar, or more precisely the “dollar.” Can Broker Stocks Finally Get Past The “2-Step”? One of the few sectors that has shown little inclination to participate in the equity rally – broker-dealers – has an opportunity to gain some traction here CBOE launches twitter tracking benchmark i ndex What Happens When Central Banks Become Major Buyers in the Stock Market? Case Study: Japan As for shares held in BOJ-owned ETFs, we have doubts that shareholder voting rights will be exercised properly by the asset management companies holding those rights August 17 First Real Test for Dividend Yield Chasers? The Federal Reserve still undecided on further rates hikes just provide enough uncertainties to bring finally a consolidation phase within the the Yield Chasers Investment Sphere SP100 Index ETF OEF: Generals too Confident? The Volatility of the SP100 Index (CBOE V XO) is falling faster than the Volatility of the Mighty SP500 Index (CBOE VIX) on daily relative basis since February 2016 as shown by the third chart below. We are noe on the Support Trendline that started back since June 2014! Market on track for further gains this August The market is tracking August’s historical pattern in election years quite closely These Four Charts Say A Lot About The Stock Market The charts above show an increasing tolerance for risk, which improves the odds of the S&P 500’s recent bullish break to new highs being sustainable Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - August Remarkably, allocations to cash in July were even higher than in February, and fund managers became underweight equities for the first time in 4 years USDU ...An Important Perspective on the US Dollar If this pattern plays out we could be witnessing a large trend reversal in the most important chart on the planet Gold Is At Extreme Correlations Against Stocks, Bonds and Oil And by extreme, we mean the most negatively correlated it has been to stocks, bonds and oil prices in decades August 16 US Dollar Index DXY: Weakness to Prevail? If we continue to see the US Dollar weakening, the party will be over for US Financial Assets in terms of performance and low Volatility... How Does 2016 Compare To Stock Market Peaks In 2000 And 2007? A market’s 200-day moving average can assist in monitoring investors’ net aggregate tolerance for risk Bretton Woods: RIP Indeed, many of the financial crises experienced over the past quarter of a century were the result of too much rigidity and not enough flexibility Peak Season Shipping Roundup: Long Beach Port Traffic Down 7.7%; Cass Freight Index Down, Intermodal Shipping Down Uncertainty Yet Again Dollar Slumps, but Driver may Not be so Obvious Rather our skepticism is based in the prices themselves August 15 US Financial Markets: Pressure Cooker Still On? So as few of us realize is that most of the main US Financial Assets are under wedge technical pattern ready to breakout or breakdown SPY ETF/Apple Shares: A Tale of Two Worlds? As the SPY ETF is already in Breakout Mode, Apple Shares are now at a technical crossroads Cda TSX Small Cap Index ETF XCS: Near Breakout? The TSX Small Cap Index ETF XCS is now testing a Daily Major Resistance Trendline that started back since April 2011! This is the chance of a stock-market hangover History shows record run doesn’t mean big setback around corner Exploiting Insanity – Part II Zero or negative interest rates allow almost every company to be profitable regardless of its debt situation